SWEDEN: Retail Sales Momentum Remains Firm Despite Weak Consumer Confidence
Swedish retail sales momentum remains firm, which should provide a tailwind to Q1 household consumption even as consumer confidence indicators weaken. Since the strikingly large rise in December 2024, the retail sales index has pulled back a little, but remains above any level seen between December 2022- November 2024.
- In February, sales rose 2.8% Y/Y (vs 3.1% prior) and 0.1% M/M. The monthly NSA print appears broadly in line with seasonal norms over the past 10 years.
- That sees 3m/3m momentum at 2.2%, up from 1.4% in February for its highest since June 2021.
- Retail sentiment in the Economic Tendency Indicator has been above the long-run average of 100 since July 2024, but recently pulled back sharply to 104.7 (vs 110.6 prior) in March. This may pose some downside risks to retail sales at the end of Q1.
- Nonetheless, the February print supports Riksbank policy rates remaining at current levels of 2.25%, with developments in US tariff policies from April 2 now the key focus.
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CROSS ASSET: A $3.3k bounce in Bitcoin
- Bitcoin has managed to bounce back above that 50% retracement noted Yesterday at $88,027.59, this is the retracement post the US Election rally.
- Bitcoin lost a whopping ~10.55k in just the last two sessions, and after bouncing some ~3.3k from Yesterday's low, it is drifting back down to that $88,027.59 level.
- Next supports are still seen at 85,133.12, followed by 83,021.19, 61.8% retracement of the US Election Rally.
(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg).
GILTS: Flat Start, Global Cues Still Eyed
Gilts little changed with Bunds and Tsys off lows ahead of the UK open.
- Core global FI came under pressure in Asia on the back of increased odds of U.S. tax cuts.
- M5 futures -6 at 93.17, narrow 93.12-24 range to start.
- Initial resistance at the Feb 13 high (93.39), with the bullish technical theme intact in the contract.
- Roll completion stands at ~85% ahead of tomorrow’s first notice for H5.
- Yields little changed to 1bp lower across the curve.
- Little of note on the UK data calendar today,
- BoE dove Dhingra will speak on “Trade fragmentation and monetary policy” from 16:30 GMT, don’t expect a change in tone after she reaffirmed her dovish stance earlier in the week (pushing back against the idea of gradual cuts given her view on consumption).
SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $33.450 - 76.4% of the Oct 23 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- PRICE: $31.752 @ 08:14 GMT Feb 26
- SUP 1: $31.290 - Low Feb 25
- SUP 2: $30.691/29.704 - Low Feb 3 / Low Jan 27
- SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
Silver traded sharply lower Tuesday and in the process breached the 20-day EMA and pierced $31.396, the 50-day EMA. The move down - for now - appears corrective, however, a clear break of the 50-day average, would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open $30.691, the Feb 3 low. On the upside, the short-term bull trigger has been defined at $33.397, the Feb 14 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.
