NORWAY: Retail Sales Broadly Flat In May, But Momentum Still Positive
Jun-27 10:09
Norwegian retail sales ex-motor vehicles were flat M/M in May (SA, vs 0.6% in March and April), while the reading ex-motor vehicles and fuel fell 0.4% (vs +1.2% in April). 3m/3m growth for both measures was steady at 1.5% though, suggesting positive momentum in retail trade remains intact. This is consistent with the signals from Norges Bank’s Q2 Regional Network survey.
- The press release notes that sales in “Specialty stores for food and beverages” rose 1.0% M/M, while sales of household goods in specialist stores (e.g. building materials, electrical household appliances) fell 3.0% M/M in May.
- Annual growth rates pulled back sharply on a base effect, with May 2024 characterised by sharp rises in groceries and clothing sales due to the bank holiday calendar (all 4 bank holidays fell on “shopping days” last year).
- Elsewhere, Norwegian consumer confidence from Opinion rose to -10.2 in June (vs -12.7 in May, -20.3 in April). The press release notes that “The psychological effect of a central bank interest rate cut, and the belief that more cuts may be on the way, gives reason to believe that consumer confidence will increase in the near future. At the same time, Norwegian consumers and borrowers have become accustomed to the fact that forecasts do not always work out. This creates an underlying vulnerability in Norwegians' confidence in their own and the country's economy. New events, both national and international, can therefore quickly affect the mood".
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
May-28 09:58
- EUR/USD: Jun02 $1.1250(E1.1bln), $1.1300-05(E1.8bln), $1.1345-50(E1.4bln)
- USD/JPY: May29 Y144.80-00($1.6bln); May30 Y143.00($3.3bln)
- USD/CAD: May29 C$1.4355-75($1.5bln); May30 C$1.4500($1.3bln)
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Trend Needle Points North
May-28 09:45
- In the equity space, a bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. Last Friday’s sell-off resulted in a print below the 20-day EMA, at 5794.26. A key support lies at 5728.00, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on the bull trigger at 5993.50, the May 20 high.
- The trend cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains bullish and the recent pullback appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend and recent gains maintain the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Key support to watch lies at 5238.48, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average would signal a possible reversal.
EGBS: Modest Upside Pressure In Yields; Markets Look Through e
May-28 09:43
German yields are 2-3bps higher, with the curve lightly steepening. Moves in long-end JGBs once again set the tone at the European open, following a soft 40-year auction overnight. Steepening flow in futures (Bund/Schatz block) will have also contributed to the EGB curve moves.
- Long-end Bund supply was digested smoothly, and may have weighed a little on the space ahead of the 1030GMT bidding deadline, despite the small size.
- Bund futures are -20 at 130.75, with initial support at 130.46 (50-day EMA). Today's range has been just 30 ticks wide.
- The spread has been set for today’s 10-year Spanish syndication. MNI expects a E10-13bln size.
- 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are up to 1bp wider, with European equity futures softening. The BTP/Bund spread remains just below the 100bp handle.
- 1-year ahead ECB expectations surprisingly rose to 3.1% Y/Y (vs 2.8% cons, 2.9% prior). However, longer-term expectations were steady, limiting the market reaction. French Q1 GDP confirmed flash estimates at 0.1% Q/Q.
- Regional focus remains on Friday’s flash inflation data from Spain, Germany and Italy.
