BRAZIL: Retail Sales Above Expectations In October

• On the commodity front, the downleg in Gold since Oct 20 appears to have been a correction and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains also suggest the correction is over. Price remains above a key support at the 50-day EMA, at $3890.0.0. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on $4381.5, the Oct 20 high and bull trigger.
• Recent weakness in WTI futures appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. This suggests that an upward corrective cycle remains intact for now. Price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, at $60.84, signalling scope for a stronger recovery. Note too that resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has been pierced. A clear move through it would expose key resistance at $65.77, the Sep 26 high. The bear trigger is $55.96, the Oct 20 low.

• Treasuries are little changed after thin overnight trading, with cash closed for Veterans Day.
• The Senate has passed a funding package to reopen the US government, with the package heading to the House of Representatives. We see the government on track to re-open on Wednesday.
• The weekly ADP series headlines today’s docket after last week’s clear sensitivity to alternate labor indicators.
• TYZ5 trades at 112-21 (-00+) having kept to narrow ranges in what has been a very quiet overnight session with cumulative volumes only just over 100k.
• A key near-term resistance is seen at at Friday's joint high of 113-02 (Nov 5 & 7 highs), but a bear threat is still present at 112-06 (Sep 25 low) before which lies 112-09+ (Nov 5 high) and other various support levels.
• Data: NFIB Oct (already released), ADP weekly (0815ET), Redbook retail weekly (0855ET)
• Fedspeak: Fed Gov. Barr on AI and innovation in Singapore (2225ET)
• No issuance with Veterans Day.
• Politics: Trump participates in Wreath Laying Ceremony and delivers remarks (1100ET)

Quiet day ahead due to Veterans Day holiday - focus on weekly ADP  employment data. Cash FI markets closed but futures are open on Globex; NYSE and Nasdaq are open. The Senate passed a stopgap bill last night to fund the US Govt through January 30. Vote goes to the House tomorrow - as early as 1600ET, according to a notice from GOP Whip Tom Emmer.

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
• 11/11 0600 NFIB Small Business Optimism: reported 98.2, down from 98.8 prior
• 11/11 0815 Weekly ADP "Employment Pulse"
• 11/11 2225 Fed Gov Barr on AI & innovation
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI