EURGBP TECHS: Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 176.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 1: 175.13 Intraday high    
• PRICE: 174.23 @ 16:15 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 173.67/172.35 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 170.97 Low Aug 14 
• SUP 3: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 168.46 Low Jul 1   

The trend set-up in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the cross traded to a fresh cycle high last week. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 175.43, the Jul 11 ‘24 high and a key M/T resistance. On the downside, first support to watch lies at 173.67, the 20-day EMA.

SOFR/Treasury options remained mixed Monday: better low delta SOFR put volumes vs. Treasury 5- and 10Y calls. Underlying futures remain higher/near highs as focus turns to US Gov shutdown (Tuesday at midnight if funding deal not reached), curves flatter. Projected rate cut pricing gaining slightly vs. late Friday levels (*): Oct'25 at -22.7bp (-22.4bp), Dec'25 at -41.3bp (-40.5bp), Jan'26 at -50.7bp (-49.9bp), Mar'26 at -60.9bp (-59.9bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • +30,000 SFRX5 95.93/96.00/96.06 put flys, cab ref 96.29
  • +6,000 SFRX5 95.50/97.00 strangle w/ 95.75/96.87 strangle, 1.25 total
  • +10,000 SFRH6 96.50/96.68/96.87/97.06 call condors, 3.75
  • +5,000 SFRZ5 96.56/96.68 call spds 0.75 ref 96.275
  • +3,500 SFRZ5 97.50/98.00 call spds .25 ref 96.295
  • Update, 26,000 SFRZ5 95.87 puts, cab (huge open interest at 603,823 coming into the session)
  • Block, 6,015 SFRV5 96.25/96.43/96.62 call flys, 4.5 net
  • 4,000 SFRX5 95.93/96.06 3x1 put spds
  • +5,400 SFRV5 96.12 puts, cab
  • Block 2,500 SFRV5 96.12/96.31/96.43 broken put flys, 5.0
  • 2,000 SFRV5 96.25 straddles, ref 96.29
  • +2,000 0QZ5 96.25/96.50 put spds, 2.0
  • -6,000 SFRX5 95.93/96.06/96.18 put flys, 1.5 ref 96.285
  • +2,500 SFRH6 96.00/97.50/98.00 call trees, 2.0
  • 1,500 0QV5 96.81/97.00 strangles ref 96.895
  • +2,300 SFRZ5 96.50/96.62 call spds, 1.0 ref 96.285
• Treasury Options:
  • 1,000 USZ5 100 puts, 1
  • 1,000 USZ5 104 puts, 3
  • +20,000 FVX5 109.75 calls, 11 ref 109-04.75
  • 3,000 TYX5 111.5/112 put spds vs. 113/114 call spds ref 112-16.5, 6 net
  • 2,000 FVX5 111 calls, ref 109-05.75
  • +2,000 TUX5 104.5 calls, 3 ref 104-05
  • -1,400 USX5 120 calls, 14 ref 116-10

• Stocks have gradually recovered from early selling, the Nasdaq continues to outperform as Information Technology sector shares led gainers. Currently, the DJIA trades up 45.35 points (0.1%) at 46290.24, S&P E-Minis up 15.75 points (0.24%) at 6712, Nasdaq up 117 points (0.5%) at 22600.4.
• Software and semiconductor makers continued to buoy the tech sector in the second half: Western Digital +7.63%, Seagate Technology +3.78%, Micron Technology+3.72%, Lam Research +2.56% and NVIDIA +2.28%.
• Materials sector shares surged in the second half, leading gainers included: Freeport-McMoRan +5.31%, Air Products and Chemicals +1.96%, International Paper +1.24%, Amcor +1.18% and DuPont de Nemours +1.16%.
• Declining crude prices (WTI -2.55 at 63.17) continued to weigh on the Energy sector shares in late trade, leading decliners include: Devon Energy -4.11%, Targa Resources -3.97%, Diamondback Energy -3.36% and ConocoPhillips -3.33%.
• Meanwhile, the Consumer Staples sector shares decline accelerated in late trade: The Campbell's Company -3.37%, The Hershey Co -2.08%, Dollar Tree -1.83% and J M Smucker Co -1.74%.