GBPUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed

Following talks between himself, Northern Ireland Secretary Christ Heaton-Harris and EU Commission VP Maros Sefcovic, UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly tweets: "Good to speak again with Maros Sefcovic and Chris Heaton-Harris about ongoing work on NI Protocol. We are focused on finding a durable solution for NI. Intensive work continues and we agreed to talk again in the coming days."

• Sefcovic: "A productive video call with James Cleverly and Chris Heaton-Harris, taking stock of our work to find joint solutions to everyday concerns in Northern Ireland. Our top priority is to succeed for the benefit of all communities. Hard work continues. We've agreed to meet later this week."
• Comes after announcement that Cleverly would address Conservative MPs on the issue tomorrow (see: https://marketnews.com/foreign-sec-to-address-cons...)

Wires reporting that UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly will address the 1922 Committee of backbench Conservative MPs on Tuesday 21 February regarding what is believed to be a deal reached/about to be reached between the EU and UK on the Northern Ireland protocol. The tenor of the address - whether about the details of a deal, or more broadly encouraging Conservative MPs to get on side with the gov't - will determine whether the address is seen as a positive sign or one of division in the ranks.

• The gov'ts working majority stands at 70 seats, meaning 35 Conservatives could break ranks and vote against a deal and it would still pass (a tied vote would usually go in the gov'ts favour). The hard-line eurosceptic European Reform Group is believed to have around 30 committed members at present, who would likely side with the DUP and oppose a deal involving the ECJ in any capacity. As such, if just this group opposes an updated protocol, the gov't likely has the votes to pass it.
• However, there has been speculation that allies of former PM Boris Johnson could also oppose a reworked protocol. While this number is more fluid, the Boris-ite cohort combined with the ERG would almost certainly have enough votes to defeat a reworked NI protocol.