SILVER TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28
- RES 1: $33.686/700 - High Apr 25 / Intraday high
- PRICE: $33.077 @ 08:14 BST May 30
- SUP 1: $31.651 - Low May 15
- SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24
A bullish theme in Silver remains intact and price is training closer to its recent highs. Key short-term support has been defined at $31.651, the May 15 low. A clear break of this level is required to highlight a reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 25 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
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EGB SYNDICATION: New Jun-40 OT: Books Open
- Issue size: EUR 3bn WNG
- Maturity: 15-June-2040
- Settlement: 08-May-2025 (T+5)
- Guidance: MS+93bps area
- Coupon: Fixed, Annual ACT/ACT, long First Coupon (June 15, 2026)
- ISIN: PTOTE4OE0008
- Bookrunners: BBVA/DB/GSBE SE/JPM (DM & B&D)/NovoBanco/Santander
- Timing: Book’s open, today’s business
From market source
SWITZERLAND DATA: Largest KOF Drop Since March 2022
The Swiss KOF Economic Barometer fell by 6.1 points in April, to 97.1, below consensus of 101.9 and the most pronounced drop since March 2022. This is the first time the indicator is in contractionary territory since December 2024.
- “In particular, the indicator bundle for manufacturing experiences a strong setback. Similarly, the indicator bundles for other services and hospitality are under downward pressure. Solely the level of the indicator bundle for financial and insurance services remains nearly unaltered.”
- Note that by comparison, German sentiment fared comparatively well post-US tariff announcement - the IFO business barometer unexpectedly rose in April; today's release underscores Switzerland's material export exposure (also note that the country will face a high 31% reciprocal tariff in case these will go into effect following the recent 90-day pause). The SNB already noted downside risks to their most recent 1.0-1.5% 2025 growth forecast.
GERMAN DATA: Retail Sales Keep Open Positive Consumer Spending GDP Contribution
German March retail sales came in at -0.2% M/M (real, seasonally-adjusted) and +2.2% Y/Y in March. That follows February's +0.2% M//M (downwardly revised but already known from +0.8%) and January's +0.7% M/M - meaning that while retail sales did not have an overly strong Q1, consumer spending should have the potential for a slightly positive contribution in the flash Q1 GDP data, to be published at 09:00 BST/10:00 CEST. Consensus for that stands at +0.2% Q/Q total.
- Looking at the individual categories, March's decrease appears driven by non-food sales at -0.6% M/M, while food sales were +0.3% M/M. Internet and mail orders stood out positively, at +0.6% M/M, Destatis adds - on a yearly comparison, growth in the sector is notable, at +9.5% Y/Y.
- Looking ahead, consumer sentiment has outperformed expectations recently; while improving despite the US tariff announcements, it remains overall weak.
