FED: Reserves Fell To "Ample" At Just Under $3T (2/2)

Boston Fed President Collins (a 2025 FOMC voter) confirmed that she is not supportive of further rate cuts in the near-term in a speech Wednesday:

• "Given my baseline outlook, it will likely be appropriate to keep policy rates at the current level for some time to balance the inflation and employment risks in this highly uncertain environment... I see several reasons to have a relatively high bar for additional easing in the near term."
• This shouldn't come as a major surprise: she said in pre-October FOMC speeches that she saw "perhaps another 25bp" of cuts as being appropriate. Indeed, MNI had thought following the September meeting that she was likely to have been one of the members who penciled in just 2 cuts in total (including September's) in her Dot Plot by year-end.
• However this means there are now at least two current voters (KC's Schmid being the other one, as he dissented in favor of a hold in October) who potentially could outright oppose a follow-up easing in December.
• In her speech she calls policy "still mildly restrictive" but "Providing additional monetary support to economic activity runs the risk of slowing – or possibly even stalling – the return of inflation to target...it is essential to restore price stability in a reasonable amount of time."
• Like other members who are skeptical of further easing, she says that she could change her mind if the data compelled it, but "absent evidence of a notable labor market deterioration, I would be hesitant to ease policy further, especially given the limited information on inflation due to the government shutdown."

• RES 4: 1.4274 High Apr 9  
• RES 3: 1.4200 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.4140/55 High Nov 5 / Channel top drawn from Jul 23 low 
• PRICE: 1.4001 @ 17:24 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: 1.3994 Low Nov 12
• SUP 2: 1.3957 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 1.3878 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low

USDCAD is trading below last week’s high. The latest pullback highlights a potential bearish development and a possible reversal. Resistance at the top of a bull channel, currently at 1.4155, remains intact. The bull channel is drawn from the Jul 23 low. The pair has pierced support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.4021. This exposes the 50-day EMA at 1.3957. For bulls, a break of the channel top is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

The US House of Representatives is shortly due to hold votes for the first time since September 19. At around 19:00 ET 00:00 GMT, members are expected to vote on final passage of a ‘minibus'/Continuing Resolution to reopen the federal government.

• House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) said in a memo to Republican lawmakers earlier he expects voting to conclude by 20:00 ET 01:00 GMT. When the House passes the funding package, it will head to the White House for President Donald Trump’s signature, formally ending the longest government shutdown in US history.
• There have been no signs of Republican dissent ahead of the vote. Rep Thomas Massie (R-KY) is likely to vote against the bill, as he does with all short-term funding measures, but other hardline conservatives – including Rep Victoria Spartz (R-IN) – have lined up behind the measure.
• House Democrats are whipping against the bill, but there are likely to be several defections, including Rep Jared Golden (D-ME), who provided the only Democratic vote on the previous GOP funding bill and announced recently he will not seek re-election.
• Rep Don Davis (D-NC) also signalled he is likely to support the bill, writing on X earlier: “After a meeting with NC-01 veteran service officers about the effects of the government shutdown, the flight to DC is boarding, headed to vote on a bill that would reopen the government.”
• In a few moments, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will swear in representative-elect Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ), who has promised to provide the 218th and final signature to a discharge petition triggering a House vote on releasing DOJ files related to Jeffrey Epstein.