US: Rescissions Vote Expected 13:30ET, House To Take Second Run At Crypto Vote
Jul-16 13:17
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has teed up a ‘vote-a-rama’ on President Trump’s USD$9 billion rescissions package at around 13:30 ET 18:30 BST today, after OMB director Vought yesterday agreed to remove USD$400 million of cuts from PEFAR, a George W. Bush-era HIV/AIDS prevention program.
- Thune indicated that the removal of PEFAR is likely to be the only change to the final package, which should allow the bill a relatively smooth track back through the House to Trump’s desk.
- In the lower chamber, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is expected to rerun a procedural vote on two crypto bills, after 12 conservatives sank a rule vote yesterday. No vote timings have been released.
- Trump said on Truth Social, shortly after the failed crypto vote: “I am in the Oval Office with 11 of the 12 Congressmen/women... they have all agreed to vote tomorrow morning in favor of the Rule.”
- Punchbowl notes Dems are not whipping against the crypto bills: “…we expect several Democrats to back the GENIUS Act — which would introduce regulations to stablecoins — but oppose the CLARITY Act. That bill would reorganize the responsibilities of federal financial regulators for crypto.”
- House Ways and Means Committee will meet at 09:00 ET 14:00 BST to discuss altering the tax code per the crypto regulatory changes under consideration. The panel will hear testimony from industry players, including the Coin Center Director of Policy, the Blockchain Association CEO, and the VP at Fidelity Investments.
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CANADA DATA: Canadian May Home Sales Show First Gain Since Nov
Jun-16 13:16
- Sales +3.6% MOM in May driven by Toronto, Calgary and Ottawa.
- Sales -4.3% YOY, Canadian Real Estate Association says Monday.
- Average resale price -1.8% YOY. Price index -3.5% YOY and -0.2% MOM.
- "Maybe the expected turnaround in housing activity this year was just delayed for a few months by the initial tariff chaos," said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist.
- BOC cut rates seven times between last June and March, which some analysts said could boost sales. High prices have also been cited as a barrier to first-time buyers.
US: Senate Finance Committee Expected To Released Final Portion Of OBBB Today
Jun-16 13:09
The Senate Finance Committee is expected to release some, or all, of the legislative text of its portion of the ‘One Big Beautiful’ reconciliation bill today, covering the thorniest issues in the package. Committee Chair Mike Crapo (R-ID) will update Senate Republicans on the text at around 17:30 ET 22:30 BST.
- Observers are watching how the Senate handles SALT, phasing out the IRA tax credits, and work requirements and provider taxes for Medicaid. Any major changes to the House-passed package could set up another confrontation in the House and risk ping-ponging the legislation between the two chambers.
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) indicated to Fox the Senate would lower the SALT cap, but suggested the upper chamber wouldn’t eliminate it entirely.
- Politico notes that Thune insisted Trump’s tax priorities, no taxes on tips and overtime, will be “incorporated” in the Senate’s bill, "despite Senate Republicans’ desire to trim them in favor of making business tax incentives permanent.”
- When the final text is released, the Senate Parliamentarian will begin the so-called ‘Byrd Bath’ to ensure every item is related to budget and spending, rather than policy, conforming with the strict rules of Budget Reconciliation.
- Punchbowl News writes: “…a lot more needs to happen before the [bill] is ready for the Senate floor. Several provisions are expected to have placeholders while negotiations continue. In other words, it’s not just SALT that will be unfinished when the bill is released. So the whip job can’t start quite yet."
EUR: A Few intraday highs for the EUR
Jun-16 13:07
- Some very tight price action in G10 FX, Cable has now traded in a 19 pips range for the past 6 hours, a 1.3574/1.3593 low/high range since 07.44BST.
- Even the normally Volatile USDJPY has been trading in a 143.99/144.28 range for the past 4 hours.
- There are still some small movements in the EUR, testing the intraday high against the USD, CNH and GBP.
- The closest Technical level for the EUR is versus the Pound, with the next resistance eyed at 0.8547 High Jun 12, for the EURGBP.
