US: Republican Voters Sceptical Of Trump's Peace Plan For Ukraine

• Fed Funds implied rates hold a reversal of a dovish move on a broadly disappointing ISM manufacturing survey, with subsequent moves with a broader fixed income sell-off that’s hard to pin a driver on.
• Cumulative cuts from an assumed 3.86% effective (after a surprise dip on Friday from 3.87%): 14.5bp Dec, 23bp Jan, 31.5bp Mar, 37.5bp Apr and 52bp June.
• SOFR futures see muted moves on the day, between +0.015 (Z5) and -0.01 (M7-Z7) when looking out to end-2027, with front end outperformance reversing some underperformance last week.
• The terminal implied yield at 3.11% (H7) currently would mark its joint highest close since August.
• Still ahead, possibly notable remarks from Fed Gov. Cook (voter) at 1400ET for her first comments on monetary policy since August when President Trump tried to force her resignation and then fire her in what's been a lengthy legal process.
• SF Fed’s Daly (non-voter) hasn’t moved the needle in her Q&A, noting that Fed officials should “keep an open mind” for the December FOMC with a need to keep pressure on inflation without hurting jobs. The economy is in a good place but is more vulnerable to shocks and she sees more vulnerability in consumer spending data.
• Fed Gov. and CEA’s Miran (voter) meanwhile earlier reiterated that policy remains too restrictive with “neutral quite a ways below”, citing recent signs of stress in credit markets. 

• Despite the greenback making initial further progress on Monday, the USD index rally has stalled just ahead of the psychological 100 mark, and the August highs at 100.25. Additionally, weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing and prices paid data have provided a moderate dollar headwind, especially against a backdrop of relatively few US data releases in recent weeks.
• Softer-than-expected CPI data in Switzerland this morning has resulted in the Swiss Franc being the weakest currency across the G10 today. EURCHF (+0.28%) held a significant medium-term support last week, and spot is now operating roughly 100 pips above the key 0.9206 level. A break back above 50-day EMA resistance at 0.9308 would be a bullish development, likely allowing the cross to re-establish the 0.93-0.94 range that was broadly in place between May/September.
• USDCAD's +0.30% Monday rally puts the pair on course for a third consecutive higher daily close but, more importantly, the pair is on course to test and break 1.4080 resistance to clear to the best levels since mid-April's Liberation Day. Tomorrow's Federal Budget in Canada remains a key risk with some analysts touting risks of a "significantly more expansionary than previous" annual budget. The next topside level would be 1.4111, the Apr 10 high.
• There was a slight divergence between the antipodeans to start the week, with AUDNZD trading to a fresh cycle high of 1.1461. Solid demand was found beneath 1.13 and the latest strength further narrows the gap towards the 2022 highs at 1.1491. A break of this level would place the cross at its highest point since 2013. The RBA decision highlights the APAC calendar on Tuesday, and NZ employment data is scheduled Wednesday.
• Other central bank decisions due later in the week include the Riksbank, Norges Bank and the Bank of England.

• RES 4: 1.1779 High Oct 1
• RES 3: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 2: 1.1669 High Oct 28 and key resistance 
• RES 1: 1.1577 Low Oct 22 
• PRICE: 1.1530 @ 16:24 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 1.1505 Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 1.1460 1.382 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

EURUSD traded lower Monday, as the current bear leg extends. The pair last Friday breached an important support  at 1.1542, the Oct 9 low. This confirms a resumption of the current downtrend. Note that 1.1516, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. Resistance to watch is 1.1669, the Oct 17 high.