EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Republic of Hungary: Interest rate cap
(REPHUN; Baa2neg/BBB-neg/BBB)
- The government-imposed cap is applied to interest rates for mortgages and some other contracts and has attracted criticism from some of the nation's largest lenders. The likes of OTP and Erste said last month that the measure is a “needless, disproportionate intervention” into private contracts that violates the constitution. They asked the Constitutional Court to void the caps. Gulyas acknowledged that the measure would cost banks around HUF 55bln in 2025 and HUF 50bln in 2026, but highlighted the importance of keeping repayments predictable in the long term.
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Historical bullets
SILVER TECHS: Trading Above Support
- RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28
- RES 1: $33.686 - High Apr 25
- PRICE: $32.174 @ 08:07 BST May 21
- SUP 1: $31.668/651 - Low May 1 / 15
- SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24
Silver continues to trade closer to its recent lows. A bullish theme remains intact and the latest pullback that started Apr 25, is likely a correction. Key short-term support has been defined at $31.668, the May 1 low (pierced). A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $30.915, Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 25 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
USDCAD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 1.4296 High Apr 7
- RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 2: 1.4021 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.4016 High May 12 / 13
- PRICE: 1.3949 @ 08:02 BST May 20
- SUP 1: 1.3814/3751 Low May 8 / 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
Despite the latest move higher, the trend condition in USDCAD remains bearish. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance to watch 1.4024, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this hurdle would signal a stronger reversal and open 1.4111, the Apr 4 high.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt calls, 91.48/91.63.
