EM CEEMEA CREDIT: REPHUN: March unemployment falls

Greece and Italy are both still due to sell bills this week, while Germany, France and Austria have already come to the market this week. We expect issuance to be E21.4bln in first round operations, up from E19.4bln last week.

• Today, Greece will issue E500mln of the new 26-week Sep 26, 2025 GTB.
• Tomorrow, Italy will come to the market to sell E7bln of the new 6-month Sep 30, 2025 BOT.

• RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24        
• RES 3: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8428/8450 High Mar 18 / 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8395 High Mar 24      
• PRICE: 0.8339 @ 06:34 GMT Mar 26 
• SUP 1: 0.8351/40 50-day EMA and pivot support / Low Mar 25
• SUP 2: 0.8321 61.8% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 0.8391 76.4% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 0.8241 Low Mar 3 and a key support 

EURGBP is trading lower this week as the cross extends the bear cycle that started Mar 11. The cross has recently breached 0.8369, the Mar 14 low, and has confirmed a clear break of the 50-day EMA, at 0.8351. The average marked a key short-term pivot level and the breach signals scope for a deeper retracement towards 0.8321, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance to watch is 0.8395, the Mar 24 high.

• RES 4: 107.120 High Mar 4 and key resistance    
• RES 3: 106.951 76..4% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg    
• RES 2: 106.847 61.8% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg  
• RES 1: 106.805 High Mar 24                
• PRICE: 106.745 @ 06:12 GMT Mar 26    
• SUP 1: 106.630 Low Mar 18   
• SUP 2: 106.540 Low Mar 12   
• SUP 3: 106.500 Low Mar 7   
• SUP 4: 106.405 Low Mar 6 and the bear trigger     

The latest recovery in Schatz futures appears corrective and the trend condition remains bearish. The move higher has allowed an oversold trend reading to unwind. Resistance to watch is 106.847, a Fibonacci retracement. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of key support at 106.735, the Feb 19 low. The break strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper sell-off, towards 106.350, a Fibonacci retracement.