EM CEEMEA CREDIT: REPHUN: Industrial Production drops below estimate

• RES 4: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.4415 High Apr 1 
• RES 2: 1.4302 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.4248 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 1.4163 @ 08:09 BST Apr 8
• SUP 1: 1.4028 Low Apr 3 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.3986 Low Dec 2 ‘24  
• SUP 3: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 4: 1.3894 Low Nov 11 ‘24 

USDCAD has recovered from last week’s low. For now, the move higher appears corrective. The sell-off last week confirmed a resumption of the medium-term bear cycle that started Feb 3. Price has traded through a key support at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low, and this signals scope for an extension towards 1.3944, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance is seen at 1.4302, the 50-day EMA.

2.625% Jul-28 EU-bond (EU000A4D5QM6)

• Guidance: MS + 15 bps area
• Size: EUR 5bn (MNI had expected E4-6bln)

2.50% Oct-52 EU-bond (EU000A3K4DT4)

• Guidance: MS + 128 bps area
• Size: EUR 2bn (MNI had expected E4-6bln)

For both:

• Settlement: 15 April 2025 (T+5)
• Bookrunners: BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, J.P. Morgan, Natixis and Nomura
• Timing: Books open, today's business

From market source

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• The RBNZ decision is on April 9 and it is unanimously expected to continue its easing cycle with a 25bp rate cut bringing the OCR to 3.50% and then maintain its easing bias.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing 27bps of easing is priced for tomorrow, with a cumulative 98bps by November 2025.
• Data have remained soft but still signal a gradual recovery and so the MPC is likely to ease in line with its February guidance. It is also the first meeting since Governor Orr unexpectedly resigned and there is no reason to deviate from the message at this stage.
• There is likely to be little direct impact on NZ from the US’ 10% tariff on its exports, even though it is NZ’s second largest destination. However, the indirect impact from slower global growth due to a trade war and the 54% US tariff on imports from China are a significant concern, NZ’s largest trading partner.  How this issue develops is likely to determine the size of the May 28 rate cut.