RENEWABLES: German Wind Output Forecast Comparison
Nov-21 14:49
See the latest German wind output forecast for base-load hours from SpotRenewables vs Bloomberg’s ECMWF model for the next seven days as of Thursday afternoon.
- Wind forecasts from both models are relatively in line on 22 Nov, with the smallest deviation on that day, while the largest differences are seen over 25-28 Nov as SpotRenewables estimates wind to be lower than ECMWF over 25-26 Nov, with SpotRenewables then forecasting wind to climb above over 28-30 Nov.
- However, the general trend of German wind being the highest over 24-25 Nov holds in both models. Wind is then expected to drop to be lowest on 30 Nov.
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US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'24 10Y Sale
Oct-22 14:41
- -6,000 TYZ4 111-14.5, sell through 111-15 post time bid at 1026:16ET, DV01 $391,000. The 10Y contract trades 111-13.5 last (-3)
GILT AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week
Oct-22 14:32
The DMO has announced it will be looking to sell GBP4bln of the 4.125% Jul-29 Gilt (ISIN: GB00BQC82B83) at its auction next Tuesday, 29 October.
EGBS: SPGB and PGB Outperformance vs OATs Persists In October
Oct-22 14:32
SPGBs and PGBs have continued to outperform OATs in October, with the 10-year Spain/France/Portugal fly tightening further to -32bps.
- The majority of this year’s tightening (around 70bps) has come since the snap French Legislative Election announcement and subsequent period of political paralysis/heightened fiscal concerns.
- However, improving fiscal and economic prospects in Spain and Portugal relative to France also prompted ~40bps of tightening in the first half of 2024 (note: a 10-year PGB benchmark roll skewed the fly wider in January).
- Today’s Q2 Eurozone fiscal data underscored the diverging fiscal trajectories between France and other major Eurozone countries.
- There is no obvious fundamental trigger for a reversal in the fly in the coming weeks:
- France is yet to submit its 2025 budget and medium-term fiscal plan to the EU, hoping to do so by the end of this month. Looming over the entire debate is the prospect of the budget being defeated due to the lack of a parliamentary majority for the gov't (see here for more).
- Meanwhile, Moody’s are set to review France’s sovereign credit rating on Friday (current rating Aa2, outlook Stable). At least an outlook downgrade appears likely, given Moody’s rating on French debt is already one notch above Fitch, S&P and Scope.
