MNI: REMINDER: Livestream MNI Connect with Atlanta Fed Bostic On June 30

 "Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump I was extremely satisfied with the 50% Tariff allotment on the European Union, especially since they were “slow walking (to put it mildly!), our negotiations with them. Remember, I am empowered to “SET A DEAL” for Trade into the United States if we are unable to make a deal, or are treated unfairly. I have just been informed that the E.U. has called to quickly establish meeting dates. This is a positive event, and I hope that they will, FINALLY, like my same demand to China, open up the European Nations for Trade with the United States of America. They will BOTH be very happy, and successful, if they do!!!"

The vote count for Portuguese living abroad is underway, with the winners of the four seats assigned to the diaspora (two for those living in Europe, two for those living in the rest of the world) to be announced tomorrow (28 May). Speculation among observers in the aftermath of the 18 May legislative election is that the right-wing nationalist Chega ('Enough') will secure more seats from Portuguese abroad than the centre-left Socialist Party (PS), making Chega the second-largest party and the official opposition in the Assembly of the Republic for the first time. 

• President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has said that he will meet with the leaders of the three largest parties, the centre-right Social Democrats (PSD), PS and Chega, on 29 May once the full count is completed, at 15:00, 16:00 and 17:00CET respectively. Speaking to reporters, the president said he would listen to the party leaders and, if he is in a position to do so, appoint a prime minister on the same day.
• Incumbent PM Luis Montenegro is expected to retain his position, having increased the seat total for the AD, the alliance in which his PSD sits.
• José Luís Carneiro, former Minister of Internal Administration and the only candidate standing for the PS leadership, could meet with the president on Thursday. It remains to be seen whether he maintains outgoing PS Secretary General Pedro Nunos Santos' opposition to the Montenegro gov'ts policy programme.

House prices were surprisingly soft back in March, with both the FHFA and S&P CoreLogic 20-city measures recording their first simultaneous seasonally adjusted decline since Aug 2022. It comes as existing home sale relative supply has recently increased to its highest for the time of year since 2016 although these FHFA /S&P Corelogic series still see reasonable Y/Y increases. 

• FHFA house prices surprisingly dipped -0.05% M/M (sa, cons 0.1%) in March after a downward revised 0.02% (initial 0.14%), for its first monthly decline since Aug 2022.
• S&P CoreLogic 20-city -0.12% M/M (sa, cons 0.2%) in March after an unrevised 0.40% M/M, its first monthly decline since Jan 2023.
• Recent run rates are still reasonable considering the build in relative supply of inventories to sales in both existing and new home sales data. Whilst new home sales relative supply has been high for some time, existing home sale inventory has recently increased with the 4.0 months of sales back in March the highest for that month since 2016, a trend that held more recently in April at 4.4 months.
• The S&P Core Logic 20-city measure is still up 4.1% Y/Y, and with a 3m/3m run rate a touch stronger at 4.4% annualized, although the FHFA series is a little softer at 3.7% Y/Y and 3.1% 3m/3m annualized.
• A reminder that these metrics are 53% (S&P) and 55% (FHFA) higher than pre-pandemic levels.