US: Remarks At Fort Bragg Wrap Up Quiet Week For Trump

According to polling for The Economist, “Venezuelans inside the country are pretty pleased with the dramatic turn of events, even if their vision for its future differs from that of US President Donald Trump.”

• The Economist notes, “The polling shows that Mr Maduro, who presided over torture and economic collapse and brazenly stole the presidential election in 2024, was deeply hated. Just 13% of respondents even mildly opposed his capture. Strikingly, more than half of them said their opinion of the United States had improved after the raid.”
• The report notes, “For now, Venezuelans appear remarkably sanguine about the Trump administration’s plans to “run” the country and its keen interest in Venezuelan oil. Almost half support some form of American governance; just 18% oppose it. Views are more divided on who should control the oil industry. Just over a quarter of respondents thought the American government should be in charge, while about a third chose the Venezuelan government. Nearly 30% opted for private companies.”

Figure 1: “I Support the US Capture of Nicolas Maduro”, Venezuela % Responding

Source: Premise, The Economist

• The European Parliament has released a short statement seeing Kazaks (current Latvia central bank Governor) Kazaks and Centeno (former Portugal central bank Governor) its preferred candidates for the ECB Vice President role.
• Link: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20260114IPR32403/informal-exchanges-of-views-with-candidates-for-ecb-vice-president
• Finance ministers aim for a decision on Monday but it could be delayed owing to a high number of nominees, with six candidates in the race: Centeno, Kazaks, Muller, Rehn (who we previously saw as the prime contender), Sadzius and Vujcic.
• Centeno was a clear dove in his recent tenure which ended Oct 2025, whilst Kazaks is nearer the centre. Kazaks said earlier today that he is calm but “by no means” relaxed on inflation. He described the current policy stance as “somewhat boring now” with the situation “relatively balanced”.
• Re-upping our latest ECB hawk-dove spectrum below: 

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 01/13 $Benchmark JPMorgan 6NC5 +63, 6NC5 SOFR, 11NC10 +76
• 01/14 $Benchmark Bank of NY Mellon 4NC3 +47, 4NC3 SOFR+63
• 01/14 $5B *KFW 5Y SOFR+29
• 01/14 $2B #IFC 3Y SOFR+22
• 01/13 $2B *CABEI 3Y +49
• 01/14 $1.5B #OKB 5Y SOFR+34
• 01/14 $1.5B *CDP Fncl 5Y SOFR+42
• 01/14 $1.5B #ANZ NZ $500M 3Y +45, $500M 3Y SOFR+61, $500M 5Y SOFR+75
• 01/14 $1.5B #Azule Energy $850M 5NC2 8.25%, $650M 7NC3 8.625%
• 01/14 $1B #MassMutual Global $600M 3Y +50, $400M 3Y SOFR+66
• 01/13 $1B #Aviation Capital $400M +3Y+83, $600M 7Y +115
• 01/13 $1B #Jabil $500M 3Y +67, $500M 7Y +97
• 01/14 $1B *AfDB WNG 10Y SOFR+41
• 01/13 $600M #SQM 30.25NC5 5.625%
• Expected Thursday:
  • 01/13 $Benchmark IADB 10Y SOFR+45a
  • 01/14 $Benchmark OPEC Fund 5Y SOFR+60a
  • 01/13 $Benchmark Nordic Inv Bank 5Y SOFR+30a
  • 01/15 $Benchmark Nordic Investment Bank 5Y SOFR+30a