GOLD TECHS: Remains Above The $4000 Handle

Oct-09 06:27

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* RES 4: $4113.5 - 2.618 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing * RES 3: $4100.0 - Round numbe...

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FOREX: USD Into September Lows, Despite Steadier Yields

Sep-09 06:26

This morning's USD weakness is helping prop the major pairs through to new September highs headed into this week's economic and inflation data (today benchmark payrolls revisions, Wednesday PPI, Thursday CPI).

  • It's notable that today's USD weakness has not been triggered by a renewed pull lower in US yields (US 10y yield closed lower by over 5bps yesterday, but has steadied so far this morning). Instead, USDJPY selling looks the primary driver. JPY futures volumes sit just ahead of average, with activity picking up through late Asia/early Europe trade.
  • Beyond G10, the USD weakness is most keenly being felt in APAC: the Thai Baht has rallied further despite the BoT stressing their concern with FX moves already this week (USD/THB broke to 31.610 overnight, lowest since 2021), the USD/MYR is again testing clustered support into 4.18-4.19 while USD/TWD is lower for a fourth consecutive session and hitting September lows.
  • Growing odds for a Fed 50bps cut in September are partially responsible here, and today's payrolls benchmark revision is widely expected to imply large downward revisions to payrolls growth through the 12 months to March - which should add to the White House's call for a faster pace of easing. This raises the importance of nearby USD Index support at 97.109, and into the bear trigger of 96.377.

GOLD: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

Sep-09 06:26
  • RES 4: $3716.5 - 2.500 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing 
  • RES 3: $3700.0 - Round number resistance
  • RES 2: $3674.8 - 2.382 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
  • RES 1: $3659.4 - Intraday high              
  • PRICE: $3638.9 @ 07:25 BST Sep 9
  • SUP 1: $3540.2 - Low Sep 5  
  • SUP 2: $3458.7 - 20-day EMA
  • SUP 3: $3393.8 - 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: $3311.6 - Low Aug 20  

Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and last week’s gains plus Monday’s bullish start to the week, reinforce current conditions. The yellow metal has traded to  a fresh all-time high. The break also confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3674.8, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at $3458.7, the 20-day EMA.

BRENT TECHS: (X5) Bear Threat Remains Present

Sep-09 06:17
  • RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
  • RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
  • RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
  • RES 1: $69.53/71.93 - High Sep 2 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance 
  • PRICE: $66.57 @ 07:06 BST Sep 9
  • SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
  • SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
  • SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
  • SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Recent short-term gains in Brent futures are for now, considered corrective and a bear cycle remains intact. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a continuation of the bear leg. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.