EURUSD TECHS: Remains Above Support At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.1696 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
- RES 3: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
- RES 2: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
- RES 1: 1.1440/1573 High Apr 23 / 21 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.1357 @ 06:23 BST May 7
- SUP 1: 1.1279 20-day EMA and a key support
- SUP 2: 1.1144 High Apr 3
- SUP 3: 1.1047 50-day EMA and a pivot level
- SUP 4: 1.0805 Low Apr 3
EURUSD is trading closer to its recent lows. The latest pullback appears corrective. The trend remains bullish - MA studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a dominant uptrend. The latest move down has also allowed an overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of gains would open 1.1608, the Nov 9 2021 high. Initial key support to watch is the 20-day EMA, at 1.1279. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
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LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Events (Times BST)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 08-Apr | 1700 | --- | BoE's Lombardelli 'What can the UK learn from the US' |
| 10-Apr | 0001 | Mar | RICS House Prices |
| 10-Apr | 1400 | --- | BoE's Breeden at MNI ‘UK economic and Financial Stability prospects’ |
| 11-Apr | 0001 | Mar | KPMG/REC Jobs Report |
| 11-Apr | 0700 | Feb | Monthly activity data |
| 11-Apr | ---- | --- | BoE's Saporta 'How financial crisis reshape market and strategies’ |
| 12-Apr | ---- | --- | BoE's Greene ‘The dynamics of monetary policy’ |
| 15-Apr | 0001 | Mar | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 15-Apr | 0700 | Feb/Mar | Labour Market Survey |
| 16-Apr | 0700 | Mar | CPI / PPI |
| 23-Apr | 0001 | Mar | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 23-Apr | 0700 | Mar | Public Sector Finances |
| 23-Apr | 0730 | FY25/26 | DMO remit revision following FY24/25 CGNCR |
| 23-Apr | 0930 | Apr | Flash PMIs |
| 24-Apr | 1100 | Apr | CBI Industrial Trends |
GOLD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: $3223.8 - 3.382 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 3: $3200.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $3196.2 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $3055.6/3167.8 - Intraday high / High Apr 3 and bull trigger
- PRICE: $3036.5 @ 06:19 BST Apr 5
- SUP 1: $3971.3 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: $2943.8 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2880.3 - Low Mar 10
- SUP 4: $2832.7 - Low Feb 28
The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the latest pull back - for now - appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA. The next key support to watch lies at 2943.78, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3196.2, a Fibonacci projection. The bull trigger is 3167.8, the Apr 3 high.
JGBS: Richer, PM Ishiba To Push For Lower Tariffs, 30Y Supply Tomorrow
JGB futures remain sharply higher at 142.19, +53 compared to settlement levels, but well off session bests (142.95).
- “Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba says that the government will strongly push the US for tariff reductions, while emphasizing that it does not intend to provoke conflict with the US. Ishiba says the US may have misinterpreted certain trade issues and questions whether the measures align with the US-Japan Trade Agreement.” (per BBG)
- Japan’s leading economic indicator was at 107.9 in February, compared with 108.2 in the previous month.
- Markets continue to be hit by the ongoing trade-related pullback in risk appetite, although some have begun to stabilise at lower levels due to selling fatigue and profit-taking.
- Some Asian countries have said today that they will take steps to stabilise markets if needed and Japan has said it will speak with the US.
- Cash US tsys are 3-15bps richer, led by the short-end, in Asia-Pac session.
- Cash JGBs are flat to 11bps richer across benchmarks out to the 30-year (40-year flat), with the belly leading.
- Swap rates are 7-10bps lower.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see BoP Current Account and Trade Balance data alongside 30-year supply.
