CHINA PRESS: Regulators Cautious About Rapid Capital Inflows
The yuan will continue to appreciate against the U.S. dollar amid strong willingness for Chinese exporters to settle foreign exchange, but regulators will remain cautious towards any large-scale or rapid cross-border capital flows, Securities Times reported. The People’s Bank of China is guiding expectations through the central parity rate, while also influencing the speed of inflows by reducing the discount rate in the swap market, the newspaper said. The yuan is expected to appreciate to 6.7 against the dollar by end-2026, and further to 6.5 by end-2027, the Times said, citing Xiong Yi, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank.
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RATINGS: Italy Upgraded At Moody’s, Slovenia Upgraded At DBRS
Sovereign rating reviews of note from after hours on Friday include:
- Fitch affirmed Cyprus at A-; Outlook revised to Positive
- Moody's upgraded Italy to Baa2, outlook stable
- Moody's affirmed the United Kingdom at Aa3, outlook stable
- Morningstar DBRS upgraded Slovenia to AA (low); Stable Trend
- Scope Ratings affirmed Spain at A; Outlook revised to Positive
GILT TECHS: (Z5) Gains Appear Corrective
- RES 4: 93.33 Low Nov 13 a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 3: 92.70 20-day EMA
- RES 2: 92.60 High Nov 18
- RES 1: 92.43 High Nov 21
- PRICE: 92.33 @ Close Nov 21
- SUP 1: 91.51 Low Nov 20
- SUP 2: 91.01 High Oct 13 and a gap low on the daily chart
- SUP 3: 91.12 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - Nov 4 bull leg
- SUP 4: 91.01 Low Oct 13
A sharp sell-off in Gilt futures last Wednesday strengthens a bear threat and cancels a recent bullish condition. The contract has traded through 91.82, the Sep 11 high, and the move down signals scope for a deeper retracement that opens 91.12, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, initial key resistance is seen at 92.70, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average is required to signal a reversal. For now, gains are considered corrective.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 5858.59 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 3: 5825.00 High Nov 13 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 5744.00 High Nov 14
- RES 1: 5633.27 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 5560.00 @ 06:41 GMT Nov 24
- SUP 1: 5475.00 Low Nov 21
- SUP 2: 5427.01 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - Nov 13 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 5383.00 Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: 5366.00 Low Sep 17
Last week’s sell-off in EUROSTOXX 50 futures highlights a stronger corrective cycle. The contract has breached two key support points; 5597.64, the 50-day EMA, and 5626.50, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 1 low. The breach signals scope for a deeper pullback and opens 5427.01, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 5633.27, the 20-day EMA.
