SILVER TECHS: Recovers Off Support
* RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing * RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the ...
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STIR: Less Than 50bp Of Cuts Priced Through Dec After CPI
Hawkish adjustments in GBP STIRs following the firmer-than-expected CPI data.
- BoE-dated OIS 1-4bp less dovish as a result.
- BoE-dated OIS now shows just under 50bp of cuts through year-end after pricing as much as ~58bp of easing over that horizon in the wake of BoE Governor Bailey’s dovish weekend comments and a soft REC labour market release.
- Market still shows over 80% odds of a cut at the August MPC and fully discounts such a move through the September meeting.
- SONIA futures 0.5-5.0 lower. SFIZ5 has pierced but not cleanly broken its pre-existing July low, while SFIZ6 failed to pierce its own month-to-date low.
- Nothing of any real note from BoE Governor Bailey and Chancellor Reeves (outside of already leaked details) in the Mansion House addresses last night, which will leave focus on adjustments to the CPI release and any spill over from U.S. PPI data.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Aug-25 | 4.013 | -20.5 |
Sep-25 | 3.960 | -25.8 |
Nov-25 | 3.806 | -41.1 |
Dec-25 | 3.723 | -49.4 |
Feb-26 | 3.595 | -62.2 |
Mar-26 | 3.561 | -65.6 |
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: 6402.44 1.382 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 3: 6381.00 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
- RES 2: 6356.12 1.236 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 1: 6343.00 High Jul 15
- PRICE: 6323.25@ 14:54 BST Jul 15
- SUP 1: 6246.25 Low Jul 7
- SUP 2: 6218.56/6073.00 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 5811.50 Low May 23
- SUP 4: 5645.75 Low May 7
S&P E-Minis are trading in a range, closer to their recent highs. The trend condition remains bullish. Recent activity has resulted in a break of resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high. The breach confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. This was followed by a break of key resistance and a bull trigger at 6277.50, the Feb 21 high. Sights are on 6356.12, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6073.00.
FOREX: USD Off NY Highs, UK CPI Firm
The broader USD (BBDXY) ticked lower overnight/in early London trade, after registering a fresh July high in the wake of yesterday’s U.S. CPI data.
- GBP benefits from firmer-than-expected UK CPI data (detailed in recent bullets) in early London trade. Reclaiming 1.3400. The pair breached and closed below trendline support on Tuesday, affirming the short-term bearish trend. Key short-term support comes in at yesterday’s low (1.3371). GBP STIR & gilt opens now eyed.
- EUR/USD traded through 1.1600 in late NY trade, before retaking the figure, last ~1.1620. The corrective bearish cycle within the longer running bullish theme has extended, with initial support and resistance now defined at 1.1593 & 1.1730. The EU’s multi-year Budget and fallout from yesterday’s French fiscal announcements eyed today.
- USD/JPY topped out at 149.18 in Tokyo trade, before moving back towards 148.70. Fresh bullish extension would target the 50% retracement of the Jan 10-Apr 22 bear leg (149.38). Japanese long end yields are lower, although the bearish steepening theme remains intact multi-month.
- U.S. PPI dominates the macro calendar during the remainder of the day, coming on the heels of CPI data that started to show feedthrough from the President trump’s tariffs.
- Elsewhere, a raft of Fedspeak will come via Williams, Barr, Hammack, Bostic & Barkin.
