SILVER TECHS: Recovers Off Support
- RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
- RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- PRICE: $37.872 @ 07:26 BST Aug 6
- SUP 1: $36.216 - Low Jul 31
- SUP 2: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
- SUP 3: $33.940 - 50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - Jul 23 bull leg
- SUP 4: $32.958 - Low Jun 2
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish despite the recent unconstructive price action. The pullback off the late July highs is considered corrective - particularly as prices have recovered off support at the $36.652 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, but a clear break of it is needed to strengthen a short-term bearish threat and allow for a deeper retracement. This would open $35.285, the Jun 24 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the next objective at $39.655 a Fibonacci projection.
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BRENT TECHS: (U5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $81.99 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $80.72 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 1: $72.66/79.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-30 range / High Jun 23
- PRICE: $68.07 @ 07:13 BST Jul 7
- SUP 1: $65.92 - Low Jun 30
- SUP 2: $61.39 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.00 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.70 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Short-term conditions in Brent futures are unchanged, the outlook remains bearish. The contract traded sharply lower on Jun 23, and for now, this sell-off continues to highlight a bearish theme. The 50-day EMA has been breached and note too that $66.17, 61.8% of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has been pierced. A continuation lower would expose $61.39 next, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $72.66, a Fibonacci retracement point.
EURJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 171.88 High Jul 19 ‘24
- RES 3: 171.28 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 2: 171.09 High Jul 23 ‘24
- RES 1: 170.73 Intraday high
- PRICE: 170.63 @ 07:19 BST Jul 07
- SUP 1: 169.32 Low Jul 03
- SUP 2: 168.09 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 167.13 Low Jun 20
- SUP 4: 165.84 50-day EMA
A bull cycle in EURJPY remains intact and the cross is starting the week on a firm note, trading to a fresh cycle high. 170.47, 76.4% of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 sell-off, has been breached. The break strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for extension towards 171.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend is overbought, a pullback would unwind this condition. Support lies at 168.09, the 20-day EMA.
BUNDS: The Tariif Deadline is at the forefront this Week
- It was just a 11 ticks range for Bund Overnight, and very little change regarding Tech levels.
- The German IP was a beat, was revised slightly lower, but not a known Market mover.
- The small downside 5 ticks flow in Futures, was more Cash related on the Open, and the German contract is back at session high at typing.
- The initial resistance remains at 130.80, this was close to be tested twice last Week, but held.
- Support area is circa 129.80, or the 2.671% Yield level, ahead of 2.70%.
- This is a much lighter Week on the Data front, there are no notable Data release for Today, the EU Retail Sales won't move the needle, and the US Tariff Deadline (9th July) will be at the forefront this Week.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Nagel, Holzmann.
