EU CONSUMER STAPLES: Reckitt: Loan Supply

• RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 6572.45 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing 
• RES 1: 6508.75 High Aug 15 and all-time High
• PRICE: 6454.25 @ 14:35 BST Aug 26
• SUP 1: 6362.75 Low Aug 20
• SUP 2: 6313.25 Low Aug 6  
• SUP 3: 6304.76 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1

The dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and last Friday’s rally reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. Attention is on 6508.75, the Aug 15 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 6523.63, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at  6304.76, the 50-day EMA.

House prices were mixed versus expectations in June, but the overall trend is toward further softening. 

• The FHFA's house price index fell 0.2% M/M (-0.1% expected, -0.1% prior), with the S&P CoreLogic 20-City index falling 0.25% M/M (-0.20% expected, -0.32% prior).
• Momentum In all of the major house price aggregates is turning decidedly lower, amid rising inventories/low sales and continued high mortgage rates negatively impacting affordability.
• The FHFA's index is now falling at a 1.7% 3M/3M annualized rate, the weakest since 2011, with the S&P's 20-City at -2.7%, weakest since early 2023. This should be taken into broader context: both indices are up around 50% vs the start of 2020 and remain positive on a Y/Y basis (2.6% and 2.1% respectively) but have slowed considerably on that basis in the last several months.
• With pending home sales remaining weak and homebuilder sentiment as negative as it's ever been, we continue to expect downside pressure on prices.

SFIV5 96.10/96.20/96.30c fly, sold at 2.75 in 3k.