COMMODITIES: Recent Pullback in Gold Considered Technically Corrective
A downtrend in WTI futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The move down that started Apr 23 signals the end of the correction between Apr 9 - 23. That cycle higher allowed an oversold condition to unwind. For bears, a move lower would refocus attention on $54.67, the Apr 9 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Key resistance to watch is $63.72, the 50-day EMA. The latest pullback in Gold appears corrective. The primary trend condition is bullish and a resumption of the bull cycle would signal scope for a climb towards the bull trigger at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at $3202.0, the May 1 low. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement.
- WTI Crude up $0.81 or +1.35% at $60.72
- Natural Gas up $0.06 or +1.59% at $3.648
- Gold spot up $20.05 or +0.61% at $3326.16
- Copper down $1.5 or -0.33% at $458.85
- Silver up $0.11 or +0.35% at $32.588
- Platinum up $5.11 or +0.52% at $989.53
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BUNDS: Trading back at pre Cash Open level
- The German Bund is now back above where it was trading at on the Cash Open, when it fell a quick big 115 ticks, as Govies caught up with some of the big moves seen Overnight in Treasuries.
- Bund was trading at 130.25 pre Cash Open.
- The earlier bid in Risk has ran out of steam, and the selling looked to be Cash led in European Equities, although nothing big in terms of moves.
- US Tnotes has already seen over 1.2mln traded lots for this time of the Day, but the contract has stayed in a fairly tight range since the EU Open.
- Since Bund is up 36 ticks and US Tnotes is down 19.5 ticks, the Tnotes/Bund spread widens another 9bps and look to test the 175bps resistance right here.
COMMODITIES: Gold Moves Affirm Bullish Case
The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the latest pull back appears corrective. Moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact following the recent impulsive sell-off and the contract has again traded to a fresh cycle low, today. Recent weakness has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels.
- WTI Crude down $2.07 or -3.47% at $57.53
- Natural Gas up $0.02 or +0.63% at $3.488
- Gold spot up $60.21 or +2.02% at $3046.08
- Copper up $1 or +0.24% at $415.75
- Silver up $0.45 or +1.5% at $30.2371
- Platinum up $0.5 or +0.05% at $922.51
EQUITIES: S&P 500 Remains on Cusp of Bear Market
A bearish theme in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the cross is approaching its recent lows. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 4800.00 handle next. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in a bear cycle following the latest impulsive sell-off and the contract is trading just above its recent lows. Monday’s move down resulted in a breach of a key support at 4699.00, the Nov 19 ‘24 low (cont).
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 1298.55 pts or -3.93% at 31714.03 and the TOPIX ended 82.69 pts lower or -3.4% at 2349.33.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 41.261 pts or +1.31% at 3186.81 and the HANG SENG ended 136.81 pts higher or +0.68% at 20264.49.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 668.21 pts or -3.29% at 19612.07, FTSE 100 lower by 235.89 pts or -2.98% at 7675.61, CAC 40 down 210.44 pts or -2.96% at 6889.46 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 145.38 pts or -3.05% at 4628.29.
- Dow Jones mini down 265 pts or -0.7% at 37601, S&P 500 mini down 6.25 pts or -0.12% at 5012, NASDAQ mini up 47 pts or +0.27% at 17285.25.
