COMMODITIES: Recent Pullback for Gold Considered Corrective
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the recovery since Jun 24 still appears corrective. The sharp reversal from the Jun 23 high continues to highlight scope for an extension lower. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $64.70. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose $58.17, the May 30 low. On the upside, Initial resistance to monitor is $69.41, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. A bull cycle in Gold that started Jun 30 remains intact, and the latest pullback is - for now - considered corrective. Resistance at $3395.1, the Jun 23 high, has been cleared. A continuation higher would open $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. An initial firm support to watch is 3282.8, the Jul 9 low.
- WTI Crude up $0.77 or +1.18% at $66.03
- Natural Gas up $0.02 or +0.72% at $3.099
- Gold spot down $17.29 or -0.51% at $3369.61
- Copper up $8.5 or +1.46% at $589.85
- Silver down $0.17 or -0.44% at $39.0898
- Platinum down $35.18 or -2.47% at $1386.86
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EQUITIES: Trend Condition in E-Mini S&P Unchanged and Bullish
A short-term bear cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact, however, the recovery from Monday’s low appears to be a potential reversal. The contract has traded above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of both averages would strengthen a reversal theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 5486.00, the May 20 high and bull trigger. On the downside, a break of yesterday’s 5194.00 low would reinstate a bearish theme. The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and this week’s strong start reinforces current conditions. Short-term resistance and a bull trigger at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. This would open the 6200.00 handle, a Fibonacci projection. Key support remains at the 50-day EMA - at 5913.50. A clear break of it would signal a reversal.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 436.47 pts or +1.14% at 38790.56 and the TOPIX ended 20.17 pts higher or +0.73% at 2781.35.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 38.984 pts or +1.15% at 3420.566 and the HANG SENG ended 487.94 pts higher or +2.06% at 24177.07.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 452.91 pts or +1.95% at 23723.86, FTSE 100 higher by 29.18 pts or +0.33% at 8787.32, CAC 40 up 95.5 pts or +1.27% at 7631.03 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 81.14 pts or +1.55% at 5301.36.
- Dow Jones mini up 303 pts or +0.71% at 43204, S&P 500 mini up 49 pts or +0.81% at 6126, NASDAQ mini up 231.75 pts or +1.05% at 22306.
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call Spread vs Put
ERQ5 98.12/98.1875cs vs 97.9375p bought the cs for 1.5 in 4k.
EUROPEAN FISCAL: German Budget Figures Released
| Budget 2025 | Key Figures 2026 | Financial Plan 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expenditures | 503.0 | 519.5 | 512.7 | 550.4 | 573.8 |
| Change vs. previous year (in %) | +6.1% | +3.3% | -1.3% | +7.4% | +4.3% |
| Revenues | 421.2 | 430.2 | 425.3 | 434.7 | 447.8 |
| of which tax revenues | 386.8 | 383.8 | 400.6 | 412.3 | 423.9 |
| Net borrowing (core budget - NKA) | 81.8 | 89.3 | 87.5 | 115.7 | 126.1 |
| Special funds | 61.3 | 83.4 | 84.4 | 58.0 | 59.4 |
| Special Fund for Infrastructure and Climate Neutrality | 37.2 | 57.9 | 57.0 | 58.0 | 59.4 |
| Special Fund for the Bundeswehr | 24.1 | 25.5 | 27.5 | – | – |
- Appears inline with press figures seen yesterday
- More to follow
