COMMODITIES: Recent Pullback for Gold Considered Corrective
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the recovery since Jun 24 still appears corrective...
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EQUITIES: Trend Condition in E-Mini S&P Unchanged and Bullish
A short-term bear cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact, however, the recovery from Monday’s low appears to be a potential reversal. The contract has traded above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of both averages would strengthen a reversal theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 5486.00, the May 20 high and bull trigger. On the downside, a break of yesterday’s 5194.00 low would reinstate a bearish theme. The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and this week’s strong start reinforces current conditions. Short-term resistance and a bull trigger at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. This would open the 6200.00 handle, a Fibonacci projection. Key support remains at the 50-day EMA - at 5913.50. A clear break of it would signal a reversal.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 436.47 pts or +1.14% at 38790.56 and the TOPIX ended 20.17 pts higher or +0.73% at 2781.35.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 38.984 pts or +1.15% at 3420.566 and the HANG SENG ended 487.94 pts higher or +2.06% at 24177.07.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 452.91 pts or +1.95% at 23723.86, FTSE 100 higher by 29.18 pts or +0.33% at 8787.32, CAC 40 up 95.5 pts or +1.27% at 7631.03 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 81.14 pts or +1.55% at 5301.36.
- Dow Jones mini up 303 pts or +0.71% at 43204, S&P 500 mini up 49 pts or +0.81% at 6126, NASDAQ mini up 231.75 pts or +1.05% at 22306.
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call Spread vs Put
ERQ5 98.12/98.1875cs vs 97.9375p bought the cs for 1.5 in 4k.
EUROPEAN FISCAL: German Budget Figures Released
| Budget 2025 | Key Figures 2026 | Financial Plan 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expenditures | 503.0 | 519.5 | 512.7 | 550.4 | 573.8 |
| Change vs. previous year (in %) | +6.1% | +3.3% | -1.3% | +7.4% | +4.3% |
| Revenues | 421.2 | 430.2 | 425.3 | 434.7 | 447.8 |
| of which tax revenues | 386.8 | 383.8 | 400.6 | 412.3 | 423.9 |
| Net borrowing (core budget - NKA) | 81.8 | 89.3 | 87.5 | 115.7 | 126.1 |
| Special funds | 61.3 | 83.4 | 84.4 | 58.0 | 59.4 |
| Special Fund for Infrastructure and Climate Neutrality | 37.2 | 57.9 | 57.0 | 58.0 | 59.4 |
| Special Fund for the Bundeswehr | 24.1 | 25.5 | 27.5 | – | – |
- Appears inline with press figures seen yesterday
- More to follow
