RUSSIA: Real Wages Rise 4.6% Y/Y in April

• RES 4: 112-04+ High May 2 
• RES 3: 111-25   High May 7  
• RES 2: 111-05+ High May 9  
• RES 1: 110-30   High May 30 and today’s intraday high
• PRICE:‌‌ 110-17 @ 16:51 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 109-26/12+ Low May 29 / 22 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 109-09+ Low Apr 11 and key support
• SUP 3: 109-00   Round number support 
• SUP 4: 108-25+ 0.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 11 - May 1 price swing

A bear cycle in Treasury futures remains in play for now, and recent short-term gains still appear corrective. However, the contract has breached an important resistance at 110-23, the May 16 high. A clear break of this level would undermine a bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal, exposing 111-05+, the May 9 high. On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 109-12+.      

Despite soft-looking ISM Manufacturing and construction spending data this morning, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q2 GDP growth picked up to 4.6% vs 3.8% Friday.

• Of the 0.8pp upgrade, about 0.2pp can be attributed to higher equipment investment and another 0.5pp to stronger PCE consumption. "The nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.3 percent and -1.4 percent, respectively, to 4.0 percent and 0.5 percent."
• The latest estimate is easily the highest yet for GDPNow this quarter, and would represent a very strong rebound from -0.2% in Q1. Detailed table below:

• US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.150%(ALLOT 87.95%)
• US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 29.30% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 11.26% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 59.45% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.13