EU REAL ESTATE: Real Estate Equity vs Bond moves on the Week
- The Equity market is differentiating between Cyclical consumer-exposed names and stable Residential names.
- Those issuers with a high percentage of Residential have seen their Equity prices bounce on lower rates. This is not reflected in Credit spreads – even relatively
| Ticker | Equity | Credit |
| URWFP | -9.0% | 6.0 |
| PLD | -8.0% | 6.5 |
| SPG | -6.7% | 6.9 |
| GMG | -5.9% | -0.3 |
| MRLSM | -5.0% | 6.9 |
| ICADFP | -4.0% | 7.3 |
| ------ | ------ | ------ |
| CASTSS | 4.9% | 5.7 |
| LEGGR | 6.4% | 7.1 |
| ANNGR | 8.2% | 6.2 |
| BALDER | 9.2% | 10.6 |
| VVOYHT | 10.7% | 5.7 |
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GBPUSD TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 1.2990 High Nov 8 2024
- RES 3: 1.2924 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.2874 High Nov 12 ‘24
- RES 1: 1.2852 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.2839 @ 08:38 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: 1.2679 Low Mar 4
- SUP 2: 1.2595 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2554 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot support
- SUP 4: 1.2440 Low Feb 13
The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and Tuesday’s strong gains reinforce this theme. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position, highlighting a potentially stronger bull cycle. The pair is again trading higher, today, and sights are on a climb towards 1.2924, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2554, the 50-day EMA.
EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Impulsive Rally
- RES 4: 1.0825 High Nov 7 2024
- RES 3: 1.0804 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.0728 High Nov 11 2024
- RES 1: 1.0689 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.0675 @ 08:36 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: 1.0529 High Feb 26 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 2: 1.0477 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level
- SUP 3: 1.0360 Low Feb 28
- SUP 4: 1.0317 Low Feb 12
EURUSD traded sharply higher Tuesday to a fresh short-term cycle high, and the pair is climbing again, today. This week’s gains have resulted in a clear breach of key short-term resistance at 1.0533, the Jan 27 high, marking a continuation of the reversal that started Feb 3. 1.0677, the 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg, has been pierced. Sights are on 1.0728 next. Initial key support to watch lies at 1.0447, the 50-day EMA.
BUNDS: Little Reaction In 30-year Yields As Syndication Books Open
No material reaction in 30-year yields after books opened for today’s 30-year syndication. The yield on the 2.50% Aug-54 Bund remains around 15bps higher on the session at 2.99%
- Earlier this morning, we highlighted a risk of a delay to the syndication amid this morning’s notable volatility in German bonds.
- We had expected a E6bln size (similar to last year), but this is very uncertain given current market conditions and could be as small as E3-4bln.
