INDIA: RBI Release Minutes From December Rate-Setting Meeting
Dec-19 11:37
Highlights from the RBI's latest minutes release: * Malhotra: I am in favour of retaining the neutr...
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EQUITIES: Option Expiries
Nov-19 11:37
Equity Option expiry for Friday in Notional Term:
US:
- SPX: $1.47T vs $1.36T (Monday).
- NDX; $86.64bn vs $77.92bn.
- Amazon: $18.70bn vs $16.93bn.
- Apple: $19.19bn vs $16.97bn.
- NVIDIA: $47.03bn (new update).
EU:
- SX5E: €139.90bn vs €138.74bn.
- SX7E: €4.31bn vs €4.43bn.
- Dax: €14.71bn vs €14.05bn.
- FTSE: £14.50bn vs £14.30bn.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: Trade Balance, Imp/Exp, Fed Speak, 20Y Bond
Nov-19 11:34
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 11/19 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications
- 11/19 0830 Trade Balance (-$78.3B, -$60.4B)
- 11/19 0830 Imports/Exports MoM
- 11/19 1000 Fed Gov Miran on bank regs
- 11/19 1130 US Tsy $69B 17W bill auction
- 11/19 1200 Pres Trump remarks at Saudi Investment Forum
- 11/19 1245 Richmond Fed Barkin economic outlook
- 11/19 1300 US Tsy $16B 20Y Bond auction (912810UQ9)
- 11/19 1400 NY Fed Williams welcome remarks
- 11/19 1400 FOMC Meeting Minutes
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
OPTIONS: One-Week G10 Vols See Support as UK Budget, RBNZ Decision Draw Closer
Nov-19 11:29
Vol markets are highly active early Wednesday, with the front-end of the curve capturing key risk events including the UK Budget and the RBNZ rate decision.
- The GBPUSD vol premium over EURUSD has only traded wider on two occasions since the Truss/Kwarteng budget in 2022: January 2025's GBP sell-off, and the BoE's 50bps rate hike in June 2023. This signals broad currency risk into Reeves' Budget - despite more settled expectations of the tax-and-spend measures.
- In anticipation of Wednesday's RBNZ rate decision and expected final cut in the cycle to 2.25%, AUDNZD one-week vols have rallied sharply, topping 8 points for only the third time in three years - the highest since Trump's Liberation Day tariff announcement in April. A signal for further easing seems unlikely - former senior officials told MNI in October that fresh cuts in 2026 would "require a significant deterioration in the labour market and broader activity".
- The RBNZ-tied risk premium is clear to see in the implied/realised vol curve: the one-week maturity now prints the largest premium over the average across G10 FX - including GBPUSD (see below).
