STIR: RBA Dated OIS Softer After Q4 CPI Miss
Jan-29 02:35
RBA-dated OIS pricing is 4-9bps softer across meetings after today’s Q4 CPI data, with August leading.
- Q4 CPI measures printed 0.1pp below consensus with underlying measures trending towards the top of the RBA’s 2-3% band but still “some way” from the 2.5% mid-point. The data should increase the RBA’s “confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards target” as annual rates printed 0.2pp below its November forecasts. There will be updated projections at its February 18 meeting and the timing of 2.5% trimmed mean inflation will be important for its decision.
- A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced for April (135%), with the probability of a February cut at 91% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%). February was at 76% before the data.
Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Post-CPI Vs. Pre-CPI
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
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AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper On A Data Light Session
Dec-30 02:22
ACGBs (YM -5.0 & XM -8.5) are weaker and at Sydney session lows on a data-light session.
- Today, the local calendar will see RBA's Jones-Fireside Chat at Conexus at the Superannuation Chair Forum. The next data releases are CoreLogic Home Value and S&P Global PMI Mfg on January 2.
- Cash US tsys are slightly richer, with a steepening bias, in today’s Asia-Pac session after Friday’s heavy session. US data this week includes MNI PMI and Pending Home Sales on Monday, FHFA housing data on Tuesday, weekly claims and construction spending on Thursday, and ISMs on Friday.
- Cash ACGBs are 5-8bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -16bps.
- Swap rates are 3-6bps higher, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
- The bills strip is slightly weaker, with contracts -1 to -2.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly firmer across meetings. A 25bps rate cut is more than fully priced by April (125%), with a 58% probability of a February cut.
FOREX: G10 & KRW Stronger Against Greenback
Dec-30 01:54
KRW and AUD have been the largest movers against the US dollar during APAC trading today with both 0.2% stronger against the greenback. The BBDXY USD index is down slightly but has been moving within a narrow range.
- USDKRW is currently down 0.2% to 1467.35 after initially rising to 1475.45 following continued political instability and a fatal plane crash on Sunday. The investigators into former president Yoon are requesting a warrant for his arrest after his failed attempt to impose martial law early in December. Public authorities have stated that they will act if needed to ensure financial market stability. Korean equities are rallying.
- AUDUSD is up 0.3% to 0.6231, close to the intraday high, as iron ore rises above $100/t again. There are few local events this week. Later today RBA assistant governor (financial system) Jones appears.
- NZDUSD is 0.1% higher at 0.5643, close to today’s peak. AUDNZD is 0.1% higher at 1.1040.
- USDJPY has been moving in a narrow range to be down moderately to 157.79. Only the final estimate of the December Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI was released with a 0.1 upward revision to 49.6.
- European currencies are slightly higher against the USD with EURUSD at 1.043 and GBPUSD 1.2584.
- Equities are mixed with the Hang Seng up 0.2% and KOSPI +0.9% but ASX down 0.5% and Nikkei -0.8%. The S&P e-mini is down 0.1%. Oil prices are higher with WTI +0.1% to $70.68/bbl. Copper is up 0.3% and iron ore is around $100.50/t.
MNI: CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY89.1 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS MON
Dec-30 01:33
- CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY89.1 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS MON
