STIR: RBA Dated OIS Pricing Mixed Vs. Pre-RBA Levels After CPI Monthly
RBA-dated OIS pricing is softer for late 2025 / early 2026 meetings today.
- As a result, pricing remains mixed compared to last Tuesday’s pre-RBA levels—meetings through July are flat to 4bps firmer, while those beyond are 2-8bps softer.
- January headline CPI inflation printed slightly lower than expected at 2.5% y/y, in line with December. However, the underlying trimmed mean rose 0.1pp to 2.8%, but still below the top of the RBA’s 2-3% band. The first month of the quarter has limited updates for services inflation. The seasonally adjusted data is consistent with the RBA remaining cautious with it stating that “upside risks remain”.
- Markets assign an 11% probability to a 25bp rate cut in April, with a cumulative 56bps of easing priced by year-end, based on an effective cash rate of 4.09%.
Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Today Vs. Pre-RBA Levels
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
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