STIR: RBA-Dated OIS Little Changed Versus Pre-CPI Levels

At the Tokyo lunch break, JGB futures are little changed, +2 compared to settlement levels.

• MNI Techs Team – Futures prices traded to new pullback and cycle lows again Friday, weighed by building expectations of a December BoJ rate hike and a breach of support in futures prices. This affirms the firm downtrend that’s dominated prices since mid-September, and prices will need to challenge resistance before signalling any broader reversal. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 137.30, the Sep 8 high.
• MNI - Japan's Q3 GDP fell 0.6% q/q, or an annualised -2.3%, compared with the initial estimate of -0.4% q/q, or -1.8% annualised, as capital investment and public spending were revised down, although private consumption was revised slightly higher. Private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of Japan’s GDP, was revised up to 0.2% from 0.1%, though its contribution remained unchanged at 0.1 pp.
• Cash US tsys are slightly richer in today's Asia-Pac session after Friday’s modest sell-off.
• Cash JGBs are flat to 3bps cheaper across benchmarks, with the 20-year underperforming. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.9bps higher at 1.956% a fresh cycle high.
• Swap rates are flat to 3bps higher, with a steeper curve.

• CHINA JAN-NOV EXPORTS +6.2% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS
• CHINA JAN-NOV IMPORTS +0.2% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS
• CHINA JAN-NOV TRADE SURPLUS +CNY7.71 TRLN: MNI CAL

China’s largest exporting province, Guangdong, is shifting from competing on cost advantages to quality, design and brand strength, according to the 21st Century Herald. The focus of competition is moving beyond functional specifications toward cultural aesthetics and brand value. Official data showed that during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, Guangdong’s self-brand products accounted for 21.1% of the province’s exports—an increase of 2.6 percentage points from 2020. Wang Haizhong, a professor at Sun Yat-sen University, noted that firms like BYD have established brand showrooms overseas, building sales networks and gradually strengthening their international brand influence. An industry insider cautioned that enterprises should avoid exporting low-quality, low-priced products, stressing that such practices amount to “involution” and would damage the reputation of all Chinese brands.