UK FISCAL: Rayner potential replacements and potential impact on fiscal policy
Sep-05 12:51
- Angela Rayner resigning as Deputy PM will be seen as a big blow to those on the left side of the party. She had been one of the biggest advocates of wealth taxes, mansion taxes etc. and reports around the Spring Statement and last year's Budget indicated that she was pushed Chancellor Reeves hard to include these at some point. Rayner was also seen as one of the strongest communicators in the party and very popular with the grassroots supporters.
- Without her in place, Nandy is the only similarly left leaning potential candidate (from those rated as having odds of at least 10/1 on Oddschecker) with McFadden also seen on the left of the party. Markets will likely follow this appointment closely with PM Starmer's choice seemingly between another left leaning Deputy PM to try to keep more of the backbenchers on side or a candidate who may offer less resistance to some of the likely difficult fiscal choices that Reeves (on the right of the party) looks to push through. There is also the potential that Starmer looks to abolish the post of Deputy PM completely (as suggested in various media reports).
- According to Oddschecker the most likely Deputy PM choices are:
- Wes Streeting (7/2, seen as roughly in the centre of the party in terms of the political spectrum, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care)
- Yvette Cooper (9/2, seen as roughly in the centre of the party in terms of the political spectrum, Secretary of State for Home)
- Shabana Mahmood (11/2, right-leaning and popular amongst members, Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice)
- John Healey (6/1, seen as slightly to the right of the party, Secretary of State for Defence)
- Pat McFadden (6/1, one of the more left leaning in the cabinet, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster)
- Lisa Nandy (15/2, probably the most likely candidate who is to the left of the party, Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport)
- Bridget Phillipson (8/1, right leaning of the party, Minister for Women and Equalities)
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