BCB: Rates On Hold, As Expected
Jul-30 21:42
The BCB kept the Selic rate at 15%, as was expected by the sell-side consensus. An extended pause is...
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ASIA: Coming Up In Asia Pac Markets On Tuesday
Jun-30 21:06
| 2345BST | 0645HKT | 0845AEST | New Zealand May Building Permits |
| 0000BST | 0700HKT | 0900AEST | Australia June F S&P Global PMI Mfg |
| 0001BST | 0701HKT | 0901AEST | UK June BRC Shop Price Index |
| 0050BST | 0750HKT | 0950AEST | Japan Q2 Tankan Survey |
| 0100BST | 0800HKT | 1000AEST | South Korea June Trade Balance |
| 0130BST | 0830HKT | 1030AEST | Japan June F S&P Global PMI Mfg |
| 0130BST | 0830HKT | 1030AEST | South Korea June S&P Global PMI Mfg |
| 0245BST | 0945HKT | 1145AEST | China June Caixin PMI Mfg |
| 0435BST | 1135HKT | 1335AEST | Japan 10yr Bond Sale |
| 0600BST | 1300HKT | 1500AEST | Japan June Consumer Confidence |
USDCAD TECHS: Pivot Resistance Remains Intact
Jun-30 20:00
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 3: 1.4016 High May 12 and 13 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 1: 1.3806 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3654 @ 17:10 BST Jun 30
- SUP 1: 1.3618 Low Jun 26
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
USDCAD is trading below its recent highs. The primary downtrend remains intact and short-term gains between Jun 16 - 23 appear to have been corrective. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this price point would resume the downtrend. Any reversal higher would instead signal scope for a stronger retracement. Pivot resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3806.
US DATA: Weekly Economic Index Points To Continued 2+% Growth
Jun-30 19:54
The Dallas Fed's weekly economic index came in at 2.37% in the week ending June 21 (scaled to four-quarter GDP growth), a pickup from 2.01% the prior week.
- That brought the 13-week moving average to 2.27%, which represents a slight uptick from 1.99% in Q1 2025 on the same basis.
- This is another high-frequency barometer that suggests that the trajectory of real GDP growth hasn't really shifted significantly in the last few months.
- Note this an approach that eyes Y/Y growth (if the entire quarter persists at 2.37%, activity for the quarter is expected to be recorded at 2.37% higher than the same quarter a year earlier), different from Q/Q SAAR growth, which measures and annualizes sequential quarterly growth (which the Atlanta Fed currently nowcasts for Q2 at 2.9%). Y/Y GDP in Q1 was 2.0%, vs -0.5% on a Q/Q SAAR basis.
