US TSYS: Rates Near Highs Ahead Friday's Key August Employ Report
Sep-04 19:20
- Treasuries look to finish moderately higher, near Thursday session highs after this morning's data. Treasury futures gapped higher then quickly reversed/pared gains after lower than expected ADP private jobs gain (+54k vs. +68k est) (prior up-revised slightly). ADP employment has pointed to subdued private sector hiring for some months now, with the three-month average inching up to 46k in August.
- Weekly jobless claims gained slightly (237k vs. 230k est, 229k prior) while continuing claims came out lower than expected (1.940M vs 1.959M est, prior down-revised to 1.944M). Unit Labor Cost slightly lower than expected - but prior is up-revised significantly.
- Meanwhile, August's ISM Services report was stronger than expected in most major categories, with the headline index rising to a 6-month high 52.0 from 50.1 prior (and vs 51.0 Bloomberg consensus). This was a solid report but there was still ample evidence of tariff-related effects on business activity.
- Currently, the Dec'25 10Y trades +8.5 at 112-28 (yld 4.1684 -.0483) - just off session high at 112-28.5 -- Initial technical resistance: 2.000 proj of the Jul 15 - 22 - 28 price swing. Support below at 112-01.5 (20-day EMA). Curves bull flatten: 2s10s -1.664 at 58.146, 5s30s -0.647 at 119.627.
- USD index slowly ground higher (BBDXY +1.54 at 1207.06) undeterred by some slightly softer ADP and claims data, and moderately boosted by an above-expectation ISM services release. Overall, the moves have been relatively contained (DXY up 0.25%) ahead Friday's key employ data.
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US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Sep'25 30Y Ultra Bond Sale
Aug-05 19:14
- -3,000 WNU5 119-14, sell through 119-15 post time bid at 1506:35ET, DV01 $550,000.
- The 30Y Ultra-bond contract trades 119-16 last (+14)
US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Inching Lower After Mixed Earnings Results
Aug-05 19:02
- Stocks hold modestly weaker late Tuesday, near lows as carry-over buy-the-dip support that buoyed Monday's action loses momentum. Currently, the DJIA trades down 50.65 points (-0.11%) at 44123.82, S&P E-Minis down 26.75 points (-0.42%) at 6329.75, Nasdaq down 123.8 points (-0.6%) at 20930.18.
- Sector trade remained generally mixed with Materials/Utility, Consumer Discretionary, Pharmaceuticals and Tech stocks leading both gainers and decliners in late trade.
- Leading decliners includes: Gartner -28.48% after missing revenue guidance, Vertex Pharmaceuticals -19.14%, TransDigm Group -13.85%, Zebra Technologies -10.96%, Henry Schein -8.87%, Eaton Corp -6.41%, IDEXX Laboratories -5.83%, ONEOK -4.40%, Datadog -4.24%, Accenture -4.17% and Monolithic Power Systems -4.09%.
- Gainers included: defense stock Axon Enterprise +14.91% after better than expected earnings and several analyst upgrades, Leidos Holdings +6.92% on strong AI demand driving better than expected earnings, Pfizer +5.27%, Archer-Daniels-Midland +5.26%, Intel +3.97%, UnitedHealth Group +3.80%, CVS Health +3.25%, Dow +3.15%, Newmont Corp +2.65%.
- Late Tuesday earnings announcements: Amgen Inc, Rivian Automotive, Arista Networks, Advanced Micro Devices, Match Group, Mosaic, Snap, International Flavors & Fragrances and Super Micro Computer.
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
Aug-05 19:00
- RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: 173.97 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 170.79 @ 16:50 BST Aug 5
- SUP 1: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
- SUP 2: 169.27 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1
- SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23
A bullish trend condition in EURJPY remains intact and for now the recent move down is considered corrective. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 169.27. A clear break of the EMA is required to highlight a stronger short-term bearish threat. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting an uptrend. A break of the Jul 28 high of 173.97, would resume the bull cycle.
