US TSYS: Rates Flat for the Week, Wary of Potential Geopol Risk Over Weekend

• RES 4: 0.7187 High Mar 11 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.7161 High Mar 12    
• RES 2: 0.7103 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - 30 bear leg 
• RES 1: 0.7085 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 0.7058 @ 16:44 BST Apr 8
• SUP 1: 0.6959 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6876 Low Apr 6
• SUP 3: 0.6833 Low Mar 30 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6727 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 9 ‘25 low  

The strong rally in AUDUSD Wednesday means that price is once again trading above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The setup in these two averages is bullish, highlighting a dominant uptrend and the latest rally suggests the recent corrective pullback is over. An extension higher would open 0.7103, a Fibonacci retracement, ahead of key resistance at 0.7187, the Mar 11 high. First support lies at 0.6959, the 50-day EMA.   

Cash Treasuries traded mixed Wednesday, with the belly outperforming as the viability of the ceasefire in the US-Iran war was assessed.

• While the rally in futures triggered by Tuesday afternoon's ceasefire announcement continued in overnight trade and through the European morning, highs were hit (TY at 111-21) at around 7:30 am ET and began to fade throughout the rest of the session. Some morning reports pointed to Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, as Tehran accused Israel of violating the terms of the ceasefire agreement, namely continuing hostilities in Lebanon.
• The largest single down-move in TYs came in mid-afternoon when senior Iranian leader Ghalibaf wrote on X.com that the terms of the ceasefire had, from their perspective, been violated, citing 1) attacks on Lebanon, 2) violation of Iranian airspace, 3) "denial of Iran's right to enrichment".
• This saw a further retracement in risk assets, though equities were set to close much stronger on the day (Nasdaq up 2.5% after having been 3.5% at one point), with
• There was no tier one data, and only limited market reaction to the latest 10Y Note auction, which brought a small tail and middling periphery stats.
• The March FOMC minutes were largely as expected, with a slightly hawkish tone given that they indicated an increasing number of participants believe the Statement guidance should be revised to reflect the possibility that the next move in interest rates could be higher given mounting inflation risks.
• Latest levels: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.2bps at 3.7855%, 5-Yr is down 1.4bps at 3.9149%, 10-Yr is down 0.6bps at 4.2872%, and 30-Yr is up 1.3bps at 4.8836%; the Jun 26 T-Note future is up 12.5/32 at 111-08, having traded in a range of 111-05.5 to 111-21.
• Thursday's calendar includes the February PCE report and final Q4 GDP as well as jobless claims. MNI's preview of Friday's CPI report is here. 

• RES 4: 186.87 High Jan 23 and a key M/T resistance  
• RES 3: 186.36 High Feb 9
• RES 2: 185.93 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 185.55 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 185.11 @ 16:43 BST Apr 8
• SUP 1: 183.52 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 182.59/181.87 Low Mar 30 / 16 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 180.81 Low Feb 12 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 4: 180.10 Low Dec 5 ‘25

EURJPY has traded to a fresh short-term cycle high. Yesterday’s gains resulted in a print above a key short-term resistance at 184.77, the Feb 25 high. The breach highlights a bullish reversal and a false break of a bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 ‘25 low. A continuation higher would open 186.36 next, the Feb 9 high. Initial firm support to watch is 182.59, the Mar 30 low.