INDONESIA CENTRAL BANK: Rate Decision Due, No Change Expected

• RES 4: 1.4296 High Apr 7
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4 
• RES 2: 1.4024 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.4016 High May 12 / 13
• PRICE: 1.3963 @ 08:03 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 1.3814/3751 Low May 8 / 6 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 ‘24
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

USDCAD maintains a firmer short-term tone for now. Despite the latest move higher, the trend condition remains bearish and recent strength appears corrective. A fresh cycle low on May 6 reinforces the bearish theme. A resumption of weakness would open 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance is seen at 1.4024, the 50-day EMA.

• RES 4: 0.5682 High Nov 12 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6515 High May 7 
• PRICE: 0.6412 @ 07:59 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 0.6356 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.6275 Low Apr 14    
• SUP 3: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: 0.6116 Low Apr 10  

The trend condition in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish. The May 13 rally signals the end of the recent corrective pullback and attention is on key resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support to monitor is 0.6356, the 50-day EMA.

Weakness in U.S. e-mini futures, driven by Moody’s sovereign rating downgrade of the U.S. late on Friday, has applied pressure to European peers, pointing to a slightly negative start at the European cash equity open.

• Note that Euro Stoxx 50 futures near Friday’s lows and e-minis have traded to fresh session lows at typing.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -0.19%
• DAX futures -0.30%
• CAC 40 futures -0.17%
• FTSE MIB futures -0.20%
• FTSE 100 futures -0.39%