SOUTH AFRICA: Ramaphosa & Trump To Meet In Attempt To Defuse Tensions
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and US President Donald Trump are set to meet in person within the next three months, possibly on the margins of the upcoming US-Africa summit, local press reported. This sets the clock ticking for a South African team to put together a proposed trade agreement that could be presented to the US. This comes amid Pretoria's multi-pronged efforts to mend ties with the US, which turned sour over South Africa's ICJ genocide case against Israel and race tensions.
- More details on South Africa's attempts to appease the Trump administration have started to come to light, with the WSJ reporting that Pretoria approached Goldman Sachs to solicit advice on improving relations with the US. Goldman reportedly told Ramaphosa's team to 'consider changing a law, even at the margins, that requires black ownership of some companies, and another that allows the government to seize property from landowners to address racial disparities.'
- Ramaphosa's spokesperson said that Goldman Sachs's advice 'would not have found favour with the government, which has committed itself to transformation that seeks to redress the past imbalances of apartheid.'
- Around the same time, Elon Musk's father, Errol Musk, claimed that President Ramaphosa asked him to convince Tesla CEO to endorse the African National Congress (ANC) ahead of the 2024 general election and 'become more involved in the country.' Earlier this year, Errol Musk helped arrange a phone call between Elon and Cyril Ramaphosa as the South African leader sought to defuse tensions with the Trump administration.
- Against this backdrop, ANC National Chair Gwede Mantashe, who was standing in for Ramaphosa at the national Freedom Day celebration, said that South Africa is 'not a province of the US and that sovereignty will be defended'. He added that if he was President for more than three hours, he would tell black people to 'go and build in [a white separatist town of] Orania.'
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USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.4402 High Mar 20
- PRICE: 1.4292 @ 16:50 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 1.4235 Low Mar 26 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
USDCAD traded through support at 1.4242 on Wednesday but has recovered. A return lower and clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. First resistance is 1.4402, the Mar 20 high.
US FISCAL: Debt Limit "Extraordinary Measures" Pick Up, But Cash Dipping Pre-Tax
Treasury data shows that there were $207B of "extraordinary measures" available to circumvent hitting the debt limit as of Wednesday Mar 26.
- That's the most since Jan 27th and up from $163B a week earlier, from a total $376B available.
- However, Treasury cash in the TGA fell to $316B as of the 26th (and was down to $280B on Thursday), meaning there were a combined $523B of resources available to avert the debt limit, the lowest since the impasse began in January (and half of the starting amount of just over $1T).
- The next couple of weeks will be very important for Treasury, as they represent the biggest tax take of the year. The Congressional Budget Office reported this week that per its estimates "if the debt limit [$36.1T] remains unchanged, the government's ability to borrow using extraordinary measures will probably be exhausted in August or September 2025." Treasury wrote to Congress this month that they would be able to provide an update on the x-date in the first half of May, after the conclusion of tax season.
AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Above Support
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6391 High Mar 17 / 18
- PRICE: 0.6291 @ 16:46 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 0.6258 Low Mar 21
- SUP 2: 0.6187 Low Feb 4
- SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD is unchanged. A short-term bull theme is intact and the latest move down appears corrective. Key short-term support to watch is 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bear threat. First support is at 0.6258, the Mar 21 low. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the bull cycle and resume the uptrend that started Feb 3.
