GBPUSD TECHS: Rallies into the Close

Aug-22 17:30
  • RES 4: 1.3753 High High Jul 2   
  • RES 3: 1.3681 High Jul 4 
  • RES 2: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug1 downleg
  • RES 1: 1.3544/3595 High Aug 22 / 14
  • PRICE: 1.3538 @ 16:34 BST Aug 22
  • SUP 1: 1.3369 50.0% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg  
  • SUP 2: 1.3315 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
  • SUP 3: 1.3249 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg 
  • SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support      

GBPUSD snapped the recent losing streak to close higher Friday, potentially spelling the end of the latest correction phase. This confirms the bullish condition is intact. Gains resulted in a breach of 1.3589, the Jul 24 high, signalling scope for a climb towards 1.3636, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. Support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3448, has been cleared signalling scope for a deeper retracement - for now. The next support to watch lies at 1.3369, a Fibonacci retracement.   

Historical bullets

SOFR OPTIONS: Large Sep'25 SOFR Call Condor Buy

Jul-23 17:24
  • +20,000 SFRU5 95.75/95.81/95.93/96.00 call condors 2.12-2.25
  • +3,000 0QZ5 97.25/97.75/98.00 1x3x2 call flys 4.0 ref 96.825
  • +14,000 SFRZ5 95.75/95.87/96.25/96.37 put condors 5.75-6.0 earlier

BONDS: Europe Pi: Gilts Stand Out At "Short", OATs / BTPs Steady (2/2)

Jul-23 17:12

In non-German contracts:

  • OAT: OAT remains in flat territory (having flirted with longs in June). The most recent week's trade was indicative of long setting.
  • GILT: Gilt structural positioning remains in short territory. In contrast to other European contracts, shorts were set in the last week.
  • BTP:  BTP continues to extend further into "very long" territory. Trade indicative of long-setting was seen in the most recent week.    

 

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Updated Jul 23, 2025 based on OI/price data through Jul 22, 2025. MNI Pi provides an estimate of fast money positioning in futures. Calculations are for guidance only, and are not trade recommendations in any way. Source: Eurex, ICE, Bloomberg Finance L.P., MNI Calculations

PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $2B Lockheed Martin 3Pt Launched

Jul-23 17:09
  • Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 07/23 $2B #Lockheed Martin $500M 3Y +37, $750M 5Y +50, $750M 10Y +65
  • 07/23 $750M *JFM (Japan Finance Org for Munis) 5Y SOFR+63