AUDUSD TECHS: Rallies Ahead of Support
- RES 4: 0.6729 High Jan 12
- RES 3: 0.6708 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bear cycle
- RES 2: 0.6668 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6635 High Mar 21
- PRICE: 0.6556 @ 16:30 GMT Apr 03
- SUP 1: 0.6481 Low Apr 1
- SUP 2: 0.6478 Low Mar 5
- SUP 3: 0.6443 Low Feb 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
Broad USD weakness aided a rally in the pair Wednesday, putting spot above first resistance at the 50-day EMA of 0.6556 and potentially confirms the recent bout of weakness as corrective in nature. Nonetheless, moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position and continue to highlight a short-term downtrend. Initial firm resistance shifts to the Mar 21 high at 0.6635.
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USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Conditions Remain Intact
- RES 4: 152.43 0.764 proj of the Dec 28 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing
- RES 3: 151.91/95 High Nov 13 / High Oct 1 ‘22 and major resistance
- RES 2: 151.43 High Nov 16
- RES 1: 150.89 High Feb 13 and bull trigger
- PRICE: 150.51 @ 16:39 GMT Mar 4
- SUP 1: 149.21/148.36 Low Feb 29 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 147.63 Low Feb 7
- SUP 3: 145.90 Low Feb 1 and key support
- SUP 4: 145.59 Low Jan 16
The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and last Thursday’s move lower appears to have been a correction. The pair has pierced support at 149.71, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal potential for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 148.36. Sights are on 151.91/95, the Nov 13 ‘23 high and the Oct 1 ‘22 high and major resistance. The bull trigger is 150.89, Feb 13 high.
CANADA: USDCAD Keeps To Friday's ISM-Inspired Range, BoC On Wed
- USDCAD has drifter higher to ~1.358, buoyed by WTI pushing lower amidst a particularly narrow session for equity futures, but remains comfortably below Friday’s pre-ISM mfg high of 1.3602.
- That in turn stopped short of latest resistance at 1.3606 (Feb 28 high), having pulled back as it struggles for fresh direction after clearing a bull trigger at 1.3586 last week.
- Ahead of Wednesday’s BoC decision, the pair sits 0.9% higher than in the run up to the Jan 24 decision, with a similar magnitude for CAD depreciation on a real trade weighted basis.
- It pushes real effective CAD to 2-2.5% lower than 5- and 10-year rolling averages. Over a long enough period that could imply some CAD appreciation risk although if CFTC futures data are indicative of broader trends, CAD positioning has shifted very close to neutral with net shorts at 0.8% of OI as of Feb 27.
US: NYT Survey Shows Depth Of Biden's Vulnerabilities
A new survey from the New York Times/Siena College has shown highly pessismitic voter views on President Biden's age, popularity, and prospects in a hypothetical 2024 matchup with former President Donald Trump.
- NYT notes: “A striking 61 percent of the voters who supported Joe Biden in 2020 now believe he is “just too old” to lead the United States effectively…The misgivings about the president’s age, which cut across generations, gender, race and education, pose a deepening threat to his re-election bid.”
- NYT’s Nate Cohen writes: “Mr. Biden is very unpopular. He’s so unpopular that he’s now even less popular than Mr. Trump, who remains every bit as unpopular as he was four years ago.”
- On the risk posed by ‘double haters,’ Cohen notes: “Overall, 19 percent of registered voters in the Times/Siena survey have an unfavorable view of both candidates. … They backed Mr. Biden by a three-to-one margin among those who voted in 2020, but now he holds the support of less than half.”
- On Biden’s cratering support amongst minority voters: “Mr. Biden’s support among nonwhite voters keeps sinking. He held just a 49-39 lead among the group, even though nonwhite respondents who voted in the 2020 election said they backed Mr. Biden, 69-21.”
Figure 1: The Following Candidate is “Too Old” to be President
Source: NYT/Siena College
