EU CREDIT SUPPLY: Raiffeisen: IPT

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3395.1/3451.3 - High Jun 23 / 16  
• RES 1: $3377.4 - High Jul 16           
• PRICE: 3369.9 @ 07:29 BST Jul 21 
• SUP 1: $3282.8/3248.7 - Low Jul 9 / Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
• SUP 4: $3085.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 22 bull leg  

A bull cycle in Gold that started Jun 30, remains intact and the yellow metal is holding on to its recent gains - for now. Note that medium-term trend conditions are bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. An extension would expose $3395.1, the Jun 23 high, and $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. First support to watch is 3282.8, the Jul 9 low.

Sovereign rating reviews of note from after hours on Friday include: 

• Fitch affirmed Canada at AA+; Outlook Stable
• Moody's affirmed the Czech Republic at Aa3, outlook stable
• Morningstar DBRS confirmed the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) at AAA, Stable Trend
• Morningstar DBRS confirmed the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) at AAA, Stable Trend
• Morningstar DBRS confirmed Portugal at A (high), Stable Trend
• Morningstar DBRS confirmed Switzerland at AAA, Stable Trend
• Scope Ratings affirmed the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) at AA+; Outlook Stable
• Scope Ratings affirmed the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) at AAA: Outlook Stable
• Scope Ratings affirmed Spain A; Outlook Stable

• RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $81.99 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $80.72 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $72.66/79.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-30 range / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $69.51 @ 07:09 BST Jul 21
• SUP 1: $65.92 - Low Jun 30 
• SUP 2: $61.39 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.00 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.70 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

A bearish theme in Brent futures remains present and this month's recovery is considered corrective. The sell-off on Jun 23 continues to highlight a bearish threat. Recent weakness has resulted in a print below the 50-day EMA and note too that $66.17, 61.8% of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has been pierced. A resumption of the downtrend would expose $61.39, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $72.66, a Fibonacci retracement point.