EU FINANCIALS: Raiffeisen Bank International: 3Q25 Results Headlines
(RBIAV; A1/A-/NR)
Small credit positive. Relatively unexciting quarter for RBI, posting a decent pre-tax profit beat on a slightly higher revenue and slightly lower provisions than expected. Ex Russia CET1 at 15.7% remains comfortable.
- Net Revenue €2,254mn vs est. €2,194mn (-2.8% QoQ / -0.1% YoY)
- Net Interest Income €1,459mn vs est. €1,416mn (-0.6% QoQ / -0.1% YoY)
- Net Fee & Commission Income €679mn vs est. €665mn (-0.9% QoQ / -1.0% YoY)
- Trading Income €44mn vs est. €56mn (-61.4% QoQ / 12.8% YoY)
- Operating Income €1,249mn vs est. €1,151mn (-2.5% QoQ / -2.9% YoY)
- Non-Operating Income €51mn vs est. €112mn (-96.5% QoQ / -73.8% YoY)
- Total Non-Interest Expenses €1,005mn vs est. €1,017mn (-3.2% QoQ / 3.7% YoY)
- Loan Loss Provision €44mn vs est. €84mn (-33.3% QoQ / -4.3% YoY)
- Pre-Tax Income €1,092mn vs est. €985mn (-515.2% QoQ / 4.3% YoY)
- OpInc/RWA (bps) 128 vs est. 121
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SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends
- RES 4: $49.444 - 3.236 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 3: $49.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $47.857 - 2.618 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 1: $47.251 - 2.382 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
- PRICE: $46.666 @ 08:11 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: $44.601/42.933 - Low Sep 26 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $40.619 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $38.580 - Low Aug 28
- SUP 4: $36.965 - Low Aug 20
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal traded higher on Monday as the bull cycle extends. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are $47.251 next, a 2.382 projection of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a climb towards $47.857, the 2.618 projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $42.933, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3968 High May 20
- RES 1: 1.3959 High Sep 26
- PRICE: 1.3912 @ 08:07 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: 1.3885/3810 Low Sep 25 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3689 Low Jul 28
- SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
A bullish theme in USDCAD remains intact and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Recent gains have resulted in the breach of a key resistance at 1.3925, the May 20 high and bull trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16. This paves the way for a climb towards 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, first key support lies at 1.3810, the 50-day EMA.
STIR: Modest Dovish Move In EUR Pricing After French CPI
A modest dovish drift in EUR STIRs since the softer-than-expected French inflation data (which comes after the softer-than-expected Spanish core & headline Y/Y CPI seen on Monday), with ECB-dated OIS now showing just over 9bp of easing through June vs. just below 9bp of easing over the same horizon pre-data. Meanwhile, Euribor futures have firmed at the margin, last flat to +2.0.
- German & Italian inflation data is now eyed through the remainder of today.
- With just under 10bps of easing priced through mid-26, markets may still be sensitive to a downside Eurozone core surprise. Some of the more dovish ECB officials continue to stress that inflation risks are tilted to the downside.
