ECB: Radev Aligns With Median GC View

• MNI: NORWAY NOV CPI-ATE -0.3% M/M, +3.0% Y/Y
• NORWAY NOV CPI +0.1% M/M, +3.0% Y/Y

• RES 4: 5858.59 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing       
• RES 3: 5825.00 High Nov 13 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 5800.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 5742.40/5758.00 76.4% of Nov 13 - 21 bear leg / High Dec 9         
• PRICE: 5717.00 @ 06:40 GMT Dec 10
• SUP 1: 5674.17 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 5629.92 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5518.00 Low Nov 25
• SUP 4: 5475.00 Low Nov 21 and the bear trigger       

A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs, signalling scope for a stronger recovery. Sights are on 5742.40 next (pierced), 76.4% of the Nov 13 - 21 bear leg. A clear breach of this price point would pave the way for an extension towards 5825.00, the Nov 13 high and a key resistance. First key support to watch lies at 5629.92, the 50-day EMA.

Italy will be looking to hold an auction on Thursday after Austria came to the market yesterday. We pencil in issuance of E5.6bln for the week, down from E17.8bln last week as issuance slows into year-end. Ireland and Spain released their 2026 funding plans while we are still on the lookout for the Netherlands (Friday) and potentially Portugal this week. There may also be an update to the Slovak 2026 funding plan either this week or next. For details of funding plans released so far see pages 1-3.

For the full MNI EGB Supply Daily with a recap of issuance so far this week and a look ahead to the year's remaining issuance and summaries of funding plans for 2026 released so far, click here.

• Austria will kick off issuance for the week today, with E575mln of the 2.80% Sep-32 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A3NY15) on offer.
• Italy will come to the market on Thursday to hold a 3/5 year BTP auction (with no 7/15+ year BTP on offer) in the final Italian auction of 2025. On offer will be E2.5-3.0bln of the on-the-run 3-year 2.35% Jan-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005660052) alongside E0.75-1.0bln of the 3.00% Oct-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005611055) and E0.75-1.0bln of the 2.70% Oct-30 BTP (ISIN: IT0005654642). With the exception of the 3-year, the other two BTPs on offer are off-the-run.
  • As we had expected, the MEF has cancelled the bond auctions scheduled for 29/30 December as well as the BOT auction scheduled for 29 December.