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• In FX, the trend theme in EURUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and recent weakness is considered corrective. However, support at 1.1681. the 50-day EMA, has been breached. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 1.1574 initially, the Aug 27 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1.1923, a 2.0 projection of Feb 28 - Mar 18-27 swing. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.1820, the Sep 23 high.
• GBPUSD traded lower last week, marking an extension of the current bear cycle that started Sep 17. The move down has resulted in a break of 1.3491, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low. This undermines a recent bullish theme. Note too that 1.3333, the Sep 3 low and a key support, has been pierced, opening 1.3282 next, the Aug 6 low. Initial key resistance to watch is 1.3537, the Sep 23 high. A break of it would signal a reversal.
• USDJPY traded higher last week as the pair extended the recovery that started Sep 17. A bullish candle on Sep 17 - a hammer - provided an early reversal signal and remains valid. Also, MA studies remain in a bull-mode condition, highlighting a dominant uptrend. 149.14, the Sep 3 high, has been cleared. Sights are on 150.92, the Aug 1 high and key resistance. Pivot support is 145.49, Sep 17 low. Short-term weakness is considered corrective. Initial firm support lies at 147.55, the 50-day EMA.

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
• 09/29 0730 Fed Gov Waller on payments from Germany (text, no Q&A)
• 09/29 0800 Cleveland Fed Hammack policy panel at ECB w/ BOE Ramsden & ECB Lane
• 09/29 1000 Pending Home Sales MoM (-0.4%, 0.0%), YoY (0.3%, --)
• 09/29 1030 Dallas Fed Mfg Activity (-1.8, -1.6)
• 09/29 1130 US Tsy $82B 13W & $73B 26W bill auctions
• 09/29 1330 StL Fed Musalem moderated panel w/ former Fed Pres Bullard
• 09/29 1800 Atlanta Fed Bostic moderated discussion (no text, Q&A)
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI

• With such focus on the dollar and the impending US employment report this week, it is worth looking at some of the key Yen crosses and their significant chart points, especially considering that uncertainty surrounding Japanese politics and the LDP leadership remains high. Fiscal dove and well-positioned LDP contender Sanae Takaichi hinted at a review of Japan’s $550 billion investment fund that was part of its pact with the US.
• Given the proximity to tomorrow’s RBA decision, it’s worth noting that AUDJPY (shown below) remains in a strong uptrend, with the 20-day EMA acting as very strong support in recent weeks amid the firm price action for major equity indices. Additionally, an area between 97.25-45 continues to hold, while the uptrend from the April lows remains intact.
• Should we move higher, the year’s highs reside at 99.17, before the psychological 100 mark. A move back below the 50-day EMA at 96.70 would be required to alter the trend.
• Today’s EURJPY price action has taken spot back to the prior breakout level, just below the 174 handle. However, after trading to a fresh cycle high last week, a bullish theme remains prevalent. The overnight high fell just short of 175.43, the Jul 11 ‘24 high and a key medium-term resistance.
• One cross that has failed to garner much topside momentum above 200.00 is GBPJPY, and the cross has today slipped below the 20-day EMA. While noting that GBPUSD had broken some important trendline supports last week, GBPJPY might be most vulnerable to a further upward yen correction. The 50-day EMA remains key here having not meaningfully closed below this average apart from the fleeting test below in early August. The average intersects at 198.98, and the next downside target would be 195.04, the August low.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI