BRENT TECHS: (Q5) Trading At Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $83.46 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May price swing
- RES 2: $82.13 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May price swing
- RES 1: $74.11/81.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-24 range / High Jun 23
- PRICE: $67.94 @ 07:01 BST Jun 26
- SUP 1: $66.82 - Low Jun 24
- SUP 2: $62.09 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.20 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.78 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Brent futures traded sharply lower Monday, and for now, the contract maintains a softer tone. The move down has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA and note too that $67.05, the 61.8% retracement of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has been pierced. A continuation lower would expose $62.09 next, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $74.11, a Fibonacci retracement point.
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JPY: USDJPY is paring gains
- The USDJPY is starting to fade off its high, the latest 70 pips rally in the past Hour and a half was helped on the Reuters source story that the Japan's Ministry of Finance will consider tweaking the composition of its bond issuance plan for the current fiscal year ending in March 2026, which could involve trimming the issuance of super-long bonds as per two sources.
- The Dollar is seeing a small broader selling interest as Europe comes in, and looking forward, Bond desks will be watching the Japanese long end supply this Week, the 40yr Tomorrow.
EURJPY TECHS: Has Breached The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6
- RES 2: 165.21/43 High May 13 / High Nov 8 2024
- RES 1: 163.41/64.07 High May 22 / 15
- PRICE: 162.91 @ 07:56 BST May 27
- SUP 1: 161.09 Low May 23
- SUP 2: 160.99 Low Apr 22
- SUP 3: 160.01 50% Retracement Feb’25 - May’25 Upleg
- SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9
EURJPY has recently traded through a key support at 162..30, the 50-day EMA. The clear break undermines a bearish theme and signals scope for a possible deeper retracement. This would open 160.99, the Apr 22 low. Clearance of this level would expose 160.01, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 165.21, the May 13 high. First resistance is 163.41, high May 22.
GILT TECHS: (U5) Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 92.40 Low May 8
- RES 3: 92.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 91.87 High May 20 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 91.21 High May 23
- PRICE: 91.00 @ Close May 23
- SUP 1: 90.46 Low May 23
- SUP 2: 90.11 Low May 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)
A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and last week’s move lower reinforces the bearish theme. The contract has recovered from its recent lows - gains are considered corrective and this is allowing a short-term oversold condition to unwind. The bear trigger has been defined at 90.11, the May 22 low. Key short-term resistance to watch is 91.87, the May 20 high. A clear break of this level is required to highlight a stronger reversal.
