WTI TECHS: (Q5) Still Looking For Weakness
- RES 4: $82.62 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $80.43 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
- RES 1: $71.20/78.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-24 range / High Jun 23
- PRICE: $66.80 @ 07:19 BST Jul 16
- SUP 1: $65.50/64.00 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 24
- SUP 2: $58.87 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $54.81 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $54.13 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
WTI futures maintain a bearish tone. The sharp reversal from the Jun 23 high continues to highlight scope for an extension lower and this suggests that recent gains have been corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.50. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to monitor is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range.
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BUNDS: Bonds are still trading on the heavier side
- Bund and Treasuries continue to trade on the heavy side, a little surprising given the escalation in Wars, although some may look at Inflation risks.
- Nonetheless, for now both contracts (RXU5 and TYU5) are trading flat going into the European session, and TYU5 is still just short of 110.14+, Friday's low.
- For the German Bund, support is still seen at 130.52, printed a 130.53 low last Week, and small resistance moves back down to the 131.00 figure.
- Italian Final CPI is the only release for Today, UK and Japan CPIs are the main release this Week, but CBs rate decision are at the forefront this Week.
- Global Investors will also be rolling their Equity Position into September, ahead of Triple Witching Friday.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Nagel (x2) Cipollone.
GOLD TECHS: Bullish Phase Still In Play
- RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
- RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 2: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 1: $3451.3 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $3416.9 @ 07:25 BST Jun 16
- SUP 1: $3335.5/3262.2 - 20- and 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20
- SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
- SUP 4: $3100.0 - Round number support
A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance at $3435.6, the May 7 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen the uptrend and open $3500.1, the Apr 22 all-time high. Initial key support to monitor is $3262.2, the 50-day EMA.
BRENT TECHS: (Q5) Bull Cycle Intact But Overbought
- RES 4: $83.46 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May price swing
- RES 3: $82.13 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May price swing
- RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
- RES 1: $78.50 - High Jun 13
- PRICE: $74.59 @ 07:11 BST Jun 16
- SUP 1: $70.41 - Low Jun 13
- SUP 2: $66.10 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $62.09 - Low May 30
- SUP 4: $57.78 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
A bull cycle in Brent futures remains in play and last week’s impulsive rally reinforces bullish conditions. Price action is likely to remain volatile and from a technical standpoint, the trend is currently in an extreme overbought position. A continuation higher would expose the $80.00 handle next. A firm short-term support is seen at $70.41, the Jun 13 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
