BRENT TECHS: (Q5) Reversal Extends
* RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance * RES 3: $83.46 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May price...
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 26-May | 0800 | ES | PPI |
| 26-May | 1420 | EU | ECB's Lagarde On Europe's Role In A Fragmented World |
| 27-May | 0700 | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 27-May | 0745 | FR | HICP (p) |
| 27-May | 1000 | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 28-May | 0745 | FR | GDP (f) / PPI / Monthly Consumer Spending |
| 28-May | 0855 | DE | Unemployment |
| 29-May | 0900 | IT | Consumer / Business Confidence |
| 30-May | 0700 | DE | Retail Sales / Import/Export Prices |
| 30-May | 0800 | ES | HICP (p) |
| 30-May | 0900 | EU | M3 |
| 30-May | 0900 | IT | GDP (f) |
| 30-May | 0900 | DE | State-level CPI |
| 30-May | 1000 | IT | HICP (p) |
| 30-May | 1100 | IT | PPI |
| 30-May | 1300 | DE | HICP (p) |
OIL: Crude Moderately Higher As Trade Fears Abate
Oil prices are slightly higher during APAC trading helped by news that the US and EU would continue trade talks and that reciprocal tariffs would be delayed until July 9, the original timeframe. The USD index is down 0.3%, which is also providing support to dollar-denominated crude.
- WTI is up 0.4% to $61.76/bbl off the intraday low of $61.51. It rose to $62.14 early in the session following the US-EU trade news, approaching initial resistance at $62.75, 50-day EMA. Gains continue to be seen as corrective but a clear break of the 50-day EMA would signal a stronger reversal.
- Brent is 0.4% higher at $65.06, off the intraday low of $64.77. It reached $65.40 earlier. Technicals suggest a short-term bullish theme but in the medium-term it is bearish. The bear trigger is at $58, while initial resistance is $66.24, 50-day EMA.
- Through geopolitical and trade headlines, crude continues to watch OPEC closely. It meets on Sunday to decide output plans from July. It has decided to increase production substantially this year as it focuses on gaining market share rather than on prices and thus penalising overproducing members. Another rise is generally expected increasing excess supply for 2025 and likely 2026 further.
- The US and UK are closed today for holidays. ECB President Lagarde speaks later.
BUND TECHS: (M5) Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 131.72/132.03 High May 7 / High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 130.86 High May 9 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 130.94 High May 23
- PRICE: 130.27 @ 05:54 BST May 26
- SUP 1: 129.49/13 Low May 22 / 15 and key short-term support
- SUP 2: 129.02 Low Apr 10
- SUP 3: 128.60 Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: 128.19 Low Mar 27
The recovery in Bund futures that started May 15 suggests the move down between Apr 22 - May 15, has been a correction. A stronger resumption of gains would strengthen the reversal and signal scope for a climb towards 132.03, the Apr 7 high. Initial resistance is Friday’s high of 130.94. Key short-term support to watch is 129.13, the May 15 low. A break would be bearish and mark a resumption of the recent bear cycle.
