WTI TECHS: (Q5) Pierces Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: $82.62 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $80.43 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
- RES 1: $71.20/78.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-24 range / High Jun 23
- PRICE: $66.60 @ 06:06 BST Jun 24
- SUP 1: $64.50/00 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 24
- SUP 2: $58.87 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $54.81 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $54.13 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
WTI futures maintain a softer tone following the reversal from Monday’s high. Support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at $64.50. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high.
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EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply - W/C 26 May, 2025 (1/2)
Italy will look to issue a BTP Italia while there will be auctions from the Netherlands, Italy, and Germany. We also pencil in a Spanish 10-year syndication. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week of E30.1bln (excluding the BTP Italia), down from E37.3bln this week.
For the full MNI Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix click here.
- Italy will look to issue a 7-year BTP Italia in the upcoming week, maturing 4 June 2032. This will be the first BTP Italia since March 2023 with an offering for retail investors between tomorrow and Thursday and for institutional investors on Friday. As usual, the BTP Italia is linked to Italian inflation (rather than Eurozone inflation).
- Tomorrow, the Netherlands will come to the market to hold an existing DSL auction. On offer will be E2.0-2.5bln of the 0% Jul-30 DSL (ISIN: NL0014555419).
- Also tomorrow, Italy will look to hold a BTP Short Term / BTPei auction. On offer will be E2.50-2.75bln of the on-the-run 2.55% Feb-27 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005633794), E0.75-1.00bln of the 1.25% Sep-32 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005138828) and E0.75-1.00bln of the 1.80% May-36 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005588881).
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C 26 May
France, Austria, Greece and Italy are all due to sell bills in the upcoming week. We expect issuance to be E17.1bln in first-round operations, down from up E20.0bln last week.
- France will kick off issuance for the week this afternoon with up to E7.1bln of 14/25/51-week BTFs on offer: E2.9-3.3bln of the new 14-week Sep 3, 2025 BTF, E1.5-1.9bln of the 25-week Nov 19, 2025 BTF and E1.5-1.9bln of the 51-week May 20, 2026 BTF.
- Tomorrow, Austria will look to sell E1bln of the 2-month Jul 24, 2025 ATB alongside E2bln of the 3-month Aug 28, 2025 Green ATB.
- On Wednesday, Greece will look to sell E500mln of the new 26-week Nov 28, 2025 GTB.
- Also on Wednesday, Italy will look to sell E6.5bln of the new 6-month Nov 28, 2025 BOT.
GBPUSD TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 1.3913 High Sep 14 2021
- RES 3: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 2: 1.3605 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 1: 1.3593 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.3572 @ 06:39 BST May 26
- SUP 1: 1.3444/3329 High Apr 28 and 29 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3173/40 50-day EMA / Low May 12
- SUP 3: 1.3041 Low Apr 14
- SUP 4: 1.2968 Low Apr 11
The trend needle in GBPUSD continues to point north and the pair is trading higher today as it starts the week on a bullish note. The bull trigger at 1.3444, the Apr 28 / 29 high, has been cleared. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and sights are on 1.3605, a Fibonacci retracement. Medium-term trend signals highlight a dominant uptrend - moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position. First support lies at 1.3329, the 20-day EMA.
