BRENT TECHS: (Q5) Challenging Resistance
- RES 4: $75.33 - High Feb 20
- RES 3: $73.88 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $67.73 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 sell-off
- RES 1: $65.28/66.30 - 50-day EMA / High May 13
- PRICE: $65.00 @ 07:04 BST Jun 6
- SUP 1: $62.09/57.78 - Low May 30 / Low April 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $55.88 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $54.70 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support
Brent futures are unchained and remain in range. The medium-term trend condition is bearish and recent gains still appear to be corrective. Resistance at $65.28, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of the EMA would highlight a stronger bull cycle and expose $67.73, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a confirmed reversal lower would open $57.78, the Apr 9 low. First support is $62.09, the May 30 low.
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EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 165.92 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 2: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 1: 164.63 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 162.54 @ 07:11 GMT May 7
- SUP 1: 161.70/60 50-day EMA / Low May 6
- SUP 2: 160.99 Low Apr 22
- SUP 3: 159.48 Low Apr 9
- SUP 4: 158.56 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 2 bull leg
A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact despite the pullback from the May 2 high. The recent print above key resistance at 164.19, Mar 18 high, is a positive development for bulls. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the upleg that started Feb 28. This would open 164.90 next, the Dec 30 ‘24 high. First key support to watch is 161.70, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would undermine the bullish theme.
BOE: MNI BoE Preview - May 2025: Could “Gradual” Be Dropped?
- Going into this week’s meeting an outcome other than a 25bp cut would be surprising but there will be a number of things to watch: any changes to the guidance and the inflation / growth forecast changes, the vote split and the introduction of new scenarios.
- For the guidance we expect "restrictive" and "careful" to remain but we question whether "gradual" will be removed and talk through the rationale for this potential change.
- On the vote split, consensus expects 8-1 but neither Dhingra nor Mann dissenting for a 50bp cut would be a huge surprise. Taylor or Ramsden are plausible possible dissenters that would be more noteworthy - and any other member voting for a 50bp cut or for Bank Rate on hold would be a huge surprise.
- We look at the potential for different CPI and GDP forecasts.
- Overall we think that a dovish pivot from the MPC is possible, but that the market is already partially pricing this.
- We also round up over 20 sellside views ahead of the meeting.
FINLAND T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week
Finland has announced it will be looking to sell a combined E2.0bln of the following at its auction next Tuesday, May 13:
- E1-2bln Nov 13, 2025 RFTB
- E1-2bln Feb 13, 2026 RFTB
