BRENT TECHS: (Q5) Challenging Resistance
- RES 4: $75.33 - High Feb 20
- RES 3: $73.88 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $67.73 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 sell-off
- RES 1: $65.28/66.30 - 50-day EMA / High May 13
- PRICE: $64.79 @ 07:12 BST Jun 5
- SUP 1: $62.09/57.78 - Low May 30 / Low April 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $55.88 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $54.70 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support
Brent futures are trading in a range. The medium-term trend condition is unchanged, it remains bearish and recent gains still appear to be corrective. Resistance at $65.28, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of the EMA would highlight a stronger bull cycle and expose $67.73, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a confirmed reversal lower would open $57.78, the Apr 9 low. First support is $62.09, the May 30 low.
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BUNDS: Testing the initial support post Cash Open
- A light Overnight session for Bund, the contract continues to hover at the initial support seen at 130.75, although if did print as low as 130.69 Yesterday on the Cash Open.
- Below here sees 130.52 (50 day EMA), although seeing better at 130.34.
- US Tnotes continues to weigh following the stronger ISM Services Yesterday and the expected unchanged rate from the Fed Tomorrow.
- Next support in Tnotes (TYM5) is at 110.23+, the 50% retracement of the 2025 range, while some investors will be eyeing 4.40% in Yield next.
- Services PMIs will be final for France, Germany, EU, UK, focus will be on the US Trade Balance this Afternoon.
- SUPPLY: Germany €4.5bn Bobl (equates to 38.3k Bobl) could weigh, US Sells $42bn of 10yr notes.
- SYNDICATION: Germany 2056 Tap.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Panetta (x2).
EURJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 165.92 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 2: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 1: 164.63 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 162.84 @ 07:15 GMT May 6
- SUP 1: 162.38 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 161.69 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 160.99 Low Apr 22
- SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9
A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact despite the pullback from last Friday’s high. The recent print above key resistance at 164.19, the Mar 18 high, is a positive development for bulls. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the upleg that started Feb 28. This would open 164.90 next, the Dec 30 ‘24 high. First key support to watch is 161.69, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would undermine the bull cycle.
BTP TECHS: (M5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)
- RES 3: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing
- RES 2: 121.00 High Feb 7 (cont) and a key resistance
- RES 1: 120.65 1.382 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing
- PRICE: 120.10@ Close May 5
- SUP 1: 119.60/119.33 Low Apr 23 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 118.09 Low Apr 14
- SUP 3: 117.28 Low Apr 10
- SUP 4: 116.06 Low Apr 9
BTP futures remain in consolidation mode. A bull cycle is intact and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. The recent break of a key resistance at 120.39, the Feb 28 high, reinforces a bullish theme. Sights are on 120.65 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support to watch lies at 119.33, the 20-day EMA. The contract is overbought, a pullback would unwind this trend condition.
