BRENT TECHS: (Q5) Bear Threat Remains Present

• A 15 ticks range for Bund Overnight (17 ticks post Cash Open) as the Street look forward to a busy day on the Data front, the French GDP already came out inline with consensus, just a 1 tenth beat on the YoY reading as well as a higher revision, but had no impact on the Contract, with more set of Data scheduled.
• A small initial resistance in Bund was seen Yesterday at 131.63, this remains, while the more Important level is still eyed at 132.03.
• Small support moves back up to 131.11, despites the low print of 131.02 on Monday, this is followed by 130.75.
• It is a busy day on the Data front, France, Italy, Portugal prelim CPIs, German Regional/National CPIs, German, EU, Italy prelim GDPs, and plenty out of the US, with ADP, GDP, PCE and MNI Chicago PMI.
• US Treasury Quarterly refunding is also due.
• SUPPLY: UK £4.5bn 2028 (equates to 13.2k) should have limited impact, {ge} Germany 15s, 20s (equates combined 24.9k Bund) should have limited impact.
• SYNDICATION: Portugal 15yr WNG.
• SPEAKERS: ECB Muller, Villeroy, Makhlouf, BoE Lombardelli.

• RES 4: $78.10 - High Jan 15  
• RES 3: $75.81 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $68.46 - 50-day EMA            
• PRICE: $62.65 @ 07:06 BST Apr 30  
• SUP 1: $61.51/58.00 - Low Apr 10 / 9 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support

Brent futures have pulled back from their recent highs and the contract is again trading lower, today. Recent gains are  considered corrective and have allowed an oversold condition to unwind. The primary trend direction remains down and sights are on $56.29 a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $61.51, the Apr 10 low. On the upside, the next important resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at $68.46.

Norway March credit growth was 3.8% Y/Y in March, up from 3.6% in February. There were increases in household and corporate lending growth, offset slightly by the smaller stock of municipal government lending.

• Household lending growth makes up ~60% of the public’s debt stock, and mainly consists of mortgages. Growth in March was 4.1% (vs 4.0% in Feb, 3.9% in Jan and 3.8% in Dec). Although Norges Bank policy rates have been on hold at 4.50% since December 2023, expectations are for rates to start falling later this year, which should support some front-loading of credit growth.
• Meanwhile, Statistics Norway notes that households may have adjusted to the high level of policy rates over time. Improving retail sales momentum is also consistent with this argument.
• Corporate lending growth makes up ~30% of the public’s debt stock. And can be volatile month-to-month. In March, corporate lending rose 2.2% Y/Y (vs 1.5% prior), though is still coming from a low base.
• Municipal government lending growth (~10% of debt stock) was 7.1% Y/Y (vs 7.9% prior).