NORWAY: Q4 Wages Steady, But Deceleration Expected Through 2025
Norwegian average monthly basic earnings (i.e. excluding one-off payments) growth was 5.2% Y/Y in Q4, steady from the prior quarter. This is in line with the 2024 wage norm struck by industrial unions last year, and thus is consistent with Norges Bank’s December MPR projections and the Q4 Regional Network Survey.
- Including one-off payments, earnings growth was 5.3% Y/Y (vs 5.2% prior).
- Across industries, mining and quarrying saw the largest increase in basic earnings growth in Q4 (5.6% Y/Y vs 4.3% prior), while agriculture, forestry and fishing marked the strongest outright Y/Y growth of 5.9% Y/Y (vs 5.2% prior).
- Basic earnings growth in public administration, defence and social security eased to 2.5% Y/Y (vs 4.9% prior).
- Looking ahead, Regional Network contacts expect wage growth to ease to 4.5% Y/Y in 2025, with Norges Bank forecasting a 4.2% Y/Y growth.
- The 2025 union negotiations will be concluded over the next two months.
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STIR: 100bp OF ECB Cuts Priced Through '25 Ahead OF EZ Inflation Data
EUR STIRs little changed vs. settlement levels.
- ECB-dated OIS showing ~24bp of cuts for this month and ~100bp through year-end, with the latter 15-20bp less dovish than levels seen ahead of the Christmas break.
- Euribor futures +1.0 to -0.5.
- Flash national (headlined by France & Italy) & Eurozone CPI data dominates the European schedule this morning.
- Headline Y/Y Eurozone CPI is expected to tick up to +2.4% from +2.2%, while the core Y/Y rate is seen steady at +2.7%.
- Yesterday’s German CPI data presents upside risks to the release, with the move higher in German services inflation particularly noteworthy.
- The results from the ECB’s latest inflation expectations survey are also due to cross.
ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp) |
Jan-25 | 2.675 | -24.2 |
Mar-25 | 2.404 | -51.3 |
Apr-25 | 2.218 | -69.9 |
Jun-25 | 2.081 | -83.6 |
Jul-25 | 2.032 | -88.5 |
Sep-25 | 1.965 | -95.3 |
Oct-25 | 1.933 | -98.4 |
Dec-25 | 1.916 | -100.1 |
GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $2762.3 - High Nov 1
- RES 3: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 2: $2726.2 - High Dec 12
- RES 1: $2665.3/2692.8 - High Jan 3 / High Dec 13
- PRICE: $2641.3 @ 07:30 GMT Jan 7
- SUP 1: $2596.2/2583.6 - Low Dec 30 / 19
- SUP 2: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
- SUP 3: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
- SUP 4: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
Gold is unchanged. A bear threat remains present despite the latest recovery. The yellow metal traded sharply lower on Dec 18 and the move undermines a recent bull theme. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. The first firm support to watch is $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, a resumption of gains would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at $2726.2, the Dec 12 high.
MNI: SWISS DEC CPI -0.1% M/M, +0.6% Y/Y
- MNI: SWISS DEC CPI -0.1% M/M, +0.6% Y/Y
