SINGAPORE: Q4 GDP Slightly Below Forecasts, But Y/Y Momentum Accelerates

Singapore's Q4 advanced GDP estimate was below market forecasts. In q/q terms we rose 1.9% (2.7% forecast and 2.4% prior), while the y/y pace was 5.7% (6.3% forecast and 4.3% prior). This still matched highs from 2024 in terms of y/y momentum. Annual 2025 growth as a whole was a heady 4.8%, the strongest rise since 2021. Note that the authorities had 2025 growth at around 4% (the forecast was made late Nov last year). We should get the next MAS policy review before the end of Jan (the Jan 2025 outcome was on the 24th). Despite the modest q/q miss, today's data doesn't suggest any need for fresh easing at the Jan meeting. 

• The detail showed manufacturing up a strong 9.2%q/q in Q4, after a 11.1% gain in Q3. Construction fell 0.4% after gaining 0.7% in Q3. Services were +0.8%q/q higher after a 0.5% Q3 gain. All of these sub components were up in y/y terms, led by manufacturing, +15%.
• USD/SGD is relatively steady so far today, last in the 1.2855/60 region. The pair was supported under 1.2820 through late 2025. We remain sub all key EMAs, with the 20-day near 1.2885/90.
• The Goldman Sachs SGD NEER estimate remains relatively steady as well, holding just under -1% from the top end of the MAS policy band, as at the end of last year.